Key Highlights
- The oral version of Wegovy from Novo Nordisk achieved more than 3 million prescriptions in the United States within its first five months on the market
- More than 80% of patients receiving the oral Wegovy pill represent new entrants to the GLP-1 medication category, signaling market expansion
- Eli Lilly’s competing oral obesity medication Foundayo launched in April yet has recorded fewer U.S. prescriptions compared to Novo’s pill
- As of June 5, NVO shares traded at $42.96, while analyst models suggest an intrinsic value near $74 per American Depositary Receipt
- TD Cowen increased its 2030 worldwide GLP-1 revenue forecast to $150 billion, influenced in part by oral formulation uptake
Shares of Novo Nordisk (NVO) closed at $42.96 on June 5, representing approximately a 37% decline from price levels discussed in an optimistic investment case presented during May 2025. Nevertheless, several Wall Street analysts contend the recent selloff has pushed valuation too low.
The pill version of Wegovy has emerged as a standout performer. Management disclosed that the once-daily tablet accumulated over 3 million prescriptions during its initial five-month period following U.S. commercialization — a velocity that exceeded many industry forecasts for an entirely new delivery mechanism in a crowded therapeutic space.
The Danish pharmaceutical company recorded 1 million prescriptions during its opening 10 to 12 weeks, then registered an additional 2 million scripts across the subsequent 10-week interval. This momentum shift captured management’s attention and was highlighted as proof the oral product is building commercial strength despite intensifying rivalry.
Chief Executive Officer Mike Doustdar shared these observations at a research and development presentation on Sunday, acknowledging that Eli Lilly’s (LLY) oral obesity treatment Foundayo had arrived on the market in April. He characterized the prescription trajectory as “acceleration” even when measured against this competitive development.
Based on IQVIA prescription tracking data reviewed by equity analysts, U.S. script volumes for Foundayo have remained below those recorded for Novo’s oral Wegovy to date. Despite this, Eli Lilly maintains a substantially higher market capitalization and continues to command greater investor attention on Wall Street.
Oral Wegovy Attracts Predominantly GLP-1-Naive Patient Population
Novo disclosed that over 80% of oral Wegovy prescriptions were written for individuals with no prior history of GLP-1 medication use. This metric carries significant strategic importance — it indicates the tablet formulation is not simply converting injectable users to oral therapy, but rather drawing patients who previously remained outside the medicated obesity treatment landscape entirely.
TD Cowen elevated its projection for global GLP-1 market size in 2030 to $150 billion from a prior estimate of $139 billion, attributing part of the increase to expanding adoption of oral GLP-1 formulations.
Novo’s forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 12.77, while the trailing P/E ratio registers at 10.09, per Yahoo Finance data. A discounted cash flow valuation framework estimated intrinsic worth at roughly $74 per ADR — representing approximately 92% appreciation potential from current trading levels. The model employed cautious assumptions regarding revenue expansion and profit margins.
2026 Expected to Serve as Transition Period Ahead of Rebound
The bullish investment thesis surrounding NVO shares does not dismiss present challenges. Rather, it posits that market pricing reflects permanent impairment where analysts anticipate only transitory headwinds.
Revenue projections point to roughly a 9% contraction in 2026, pressured by softening demand for injectable Wegovy, unfavorable pricing dynamics, and disappointing clinical data from the CagriSema development program. These obstacles are legitimate concerns.
However, the oral Wegovy commercialization, the broadening addressable GLP-1 market, and Novo’s entrenched franchise in diabetes therapeutics form the foundation of the expected turnaround beginning in 2027 and extending beyond.
On June 9, Novo formally verified the 3 million prescription achievement during its R&D investor event, reinforcing that the oral Wegovy deployment continues to progress according to plan.
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