TLDR
- Bitcoin ETFs saw $541.1M withdrawn on November 4, 2024 – second biggest daily outflow ever
- Fidelity fund led withdrawals ($169.6M), only BlackRock’s IBIT showed positive flow ($38.4M)
- Outflows happened as Bitcoin price dropped below $70,000
- Timing coincides with upcoming US presidential election
- Previous week had seen $2.2B in inflows before the reversal
The day before the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin ETF markets experienced their second-largest daily withdrawal ever, with investors pulling out $541.1 million on November 4, 2024.
This massive withdrawal came after a week of steady gains, breaking a seven-day streak of positive flows into Bitcoin ETFs. The move happened as Bitcoin’s price dropped below the $70,000 mark, settling around $68,000.
Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund led the exodus, with investors withdrawing $169.6 million in a single day. ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF followed close behind, losing $138.3 million – its biggest withdrawal since launching.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) stood alone among its peers, attracting $38.4 million in new investments while other funds saw money leaving. This unusual pattern highlighted the different strategies investors are taking as the election approaches.
Grayscale’s funds felt the impact too, with their two Bitcoin products losing a combined $153.2 million. Their main Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw $63.7 million leave, while their mini GBTC lost $89.5 million.
The outflows mark a sharp turn from the previous trading week, which had brought $2.2 billion into U.S. Bitcoin funds. This reversal suggests investors are being careful with their money before the election.
Franklin Templeton, VanEck, and Valkyrie weren’t spared, together losing more than $38 million. Meanwhile, WisdomTree’s BTCW and Invesco’s BTCO stayed steady with no reported changes.
The timing of these withdrawals lines up with the final days before the presidential election. Recent polls show Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 1.2 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s November 4 data.
The cryptocurrency market as a whole has shown sensitivity to the election news. Bitcoin’s price dropped 4.6% over seven days, with other cryptocurrencies following suit. Ethereum and Solana both fell more than 3%, while Toncoin and Chainlink dropped about 5%.
The total cryptocurrency market value decreased by nearly 3% to $2.3 trillion. Bitcoin’s price settled at $67,800, showing how the pre-election mood affected the broader market.
Looking at past elections, Bitcoin has typically risen in value afterward. The cryptocurrency saw price increases following the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections, regardless of which candidate won.
Some market watchers have made specific predictions about Bitcoin’s future based on election outcomes. Bernstein analysts suggest Bitcoin might reach $90,000 under a Trump presidency or fall to $50,000 if Harris wins.
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting adds another factor for investors to consider. This combination of events – the election and Fed meeting – has created a complex situation for cryptocurrency markets.
Current betting markets on the Polymarket platform show Trump with about 59% odds of winning, though these numbers keep changing as election day gets closer.
The most recent market data shows Bitcoin trading near $68,000 as investors wait for both election results and the Federal Reserve’s announcement.
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