TLDR:
- DJT stock rose nearly 10% on Tuesday amid volatile trading, continuing a five-week surge
- Stock is up 270% from September lows, trading at highest levels since May
- Movement linked to Trump’s improving election odds vs. Harris in prediction markets
- Current investor warns stock could plunge to $0 if Trump loses election
- Company reported $16.4M net loss in Q2 with revenue of just $837,000
Trump Media & Technology Group’s stock (DJT) continued its upward momentum on Tuesday, climbing nearly 10% despite multiple trading halts. The volatile trading session extended a five-week rally that has pushed the stock to its highest levels since May 2024.
The stock’s recent performance has been closely tied to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign prospects. After hitting September lows, DJT shares have rebounded dramatically, posting a 270% increase. The surge accelerated following Trump’s weekend rally at Madison Square Garden, where the stock jumped more than 21% on Monday.
Trading activity intensified as various prediction markets, including Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi, showed Trump’s chances of victory improving against Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. However, national polls indicate an extremely close race, particularly in key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
The company’s stock movement appears disconnected from its fundamental business performance. Second quarter results revealed concerning financials, with Trump Media reporting a net loss of $16.4 million and revenue of just $837,000 for the quarter ending June 30 – a 30% decrease from the previous year.
Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, characterized the stock’s movement as “a binary bet on the election” during an appearance on Yahoo Finance’s Catalysts show. Tuttle, who owns put options on the stock, suggested that even if Trump wins, the stock might decline following the election, adhering to a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” pattern.
The company has faced additional challenges, including the departure of its COO in September and pressure on shares following the expiration of its lockup period last month. The stock had previously declined when September polling showed Harris leading Trump.
Trump’s ownership stake in the company remains substantial at approximately 60%. With the stock trading around $52 per share and a market capitalization of roughly $10.3 billion, Trump’s stake is valued at approximately $6.2 billion.
The company’s primary product, Truth Social, was created after Trump’s removal from major social media platforms following the January 6, 2021 Capitol riots. Despite Trump’s reinstatement on these platforms and his return to X (formerly Twitter) in August, Truth Social continues to face strong competition from established social media companies.
Recent campaign events have attracted high-profile supporters, including Elon Musk’s appearance at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Trump’s Madison Square Garden event drew additional notable attendees, including UFC president Dana White, former wrestler Hulk Hogan, and House Speaker Mike Johnson.
Meanwhile, Vice President Harris has maintained an active campaign schedule, focusing on swing states and policy initiatives. She recently appeared in Texas and Michigan, discussing economic proposals and the administration’s CHIPS Act implementation.
The stock’s trading pattern has shown notable volatility, with several trading halts occurring during Tuesday’s session. Despite these interruptions, the upward trend has persisted, reflecting ongoing investor speculation about the election’s outcome.
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