TLDR
- CPI inflation data release on Tuesday will be closely watched by investors amid trade tensions
- Walmart, Cisco, Take-Two Interactive among companies reporting earnings this week
- U.S.-China trade talks continue as markets react to recent tariff developments
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak Thursday after criticism from President Trump
- Retail sales and consumer sentiment data will provide insights into consumer spending patterns
The economic calendar this week is packed with high-impact data releases, key earnings reports, and Federal Reserve speeches that could shape market sentiment amid ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
Inflation data will take center stage early in the week as investors look for signs that price pressures are continuing to ease. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release on Tuesday, comes after March’s unexpected drop to 2.4%. This data point will be closely examined as the Federal Reserve weighs its interest rate policy.
Trade relations remain in focus following weekend meetings between U.S. and Chinese officials. These talks are being watched closely by market participants hoping for signs that tensions could be easing between the world’s two largest economies. The outcome of these discussions could set the tone for markets early in the week.
Several Federal Reserve officials are slated to speak throughout the week. Chair Jerome Powell’s Thursday remarks will be particularly scrutinized after President Donald Trump recently criticized the Fed’s interest rate policy. Other speakers include Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Governors Christopher Waller and Michael Barr, and regional Fed presidents Mary Daly and Tom Barkin.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Trump says the “guy in the Fed” should lower interest rates, adding, “I think I understand interest a lot better than him.” pic.twitter.com/4UPgWFtp66
— Crypto Briefing (@Crypto_Briefing) April 30, 2025
Retail Data and Consumer Sentiment
Thursday brings the release of April’s retail sales figures, which will provide insights into consumer spending habits. This data comes at a time when shoppers have been rushing to buy items before new tariffs take effect. Recent consumer sentiment surveys have shown worsening feelings about the economy, making this report especially important.
The preliminary May reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index arrives Friday. This survey has shown declining sentiment over recent months amid concerns about how the administration’s tariffs might impact prices. Tuesday’s National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index will offer additional perspective on economic conditions.
Housing market indicators will also be released, with the homebuilders’ confidence survey on Thursday and housing starts data on Friday. These reports will highlight inventory supply trends during a period when housing scarcity has contributed to affordability challenges for many Americans.
Corporate Earnings in Focus
The earnings calendar features reports from several major companies that could provide insights into different sectors of the economy. Walmart leads the retail sector with its quarterly report due Thursday before the market opens. In its previous earnings release, the retail giant reported better-than-expected results but provided a weaker outlook as it evaluated the impact of tariffs on its business.
Technology sector reports include Cisco Systems on Wednesday and semiconductor maker Applied Materials on Thursday. Cisco reported higher revenue in its prior quarter driven by increased AI orders, while Applied Materials previously warned that sales could be negatively affected by recent limitations on chip exports.
Take-Two Interactive’s Thursday report comes as the video game maker builds anticipation for its latest release in the Grand Theft Auto franchise. Agricultural equipment manufacturer Deere & Co. will also report Thursday, offering a window into the agricultural sector’s health.
Chinese e-commerce companies will be represented by Alibaba, JD.com, and Tencent Music Entertainment. Nuclear power startup Oklo, which has backing from OpenAI’s Sam Altman, will report Tuesday as investors watch for developments in its potential to meet energy demand for AI infrastructure projects.
Last week saw market indexes snap their winning streak, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining 0.16%, the S&P 500 falling 0.47%, and the Nasdaq-100 down 0.20% for the week. The S&P 500 ended its nine-day winning streak on Monday as investors took profits ahead of the Fed’s rate decision.
Technical Analysis
Analyst Trader Edge has highlighted bearish divergence on the E-Mini S&P 500 — a signal that may indicate the current bullish momentum is fading. This could suggest a potential pullback next week.
Bearish divergence on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures $ES
This could be a sign that the bullish momentum is starting to weaken 📉$SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/KlcfpGQOPl
— Trader Edge (@Pro_Trader_Edge) May 9, 2025
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its meeting last week, citing increased macroeconomic uncertainty tied to tariffs and signaling a continued “wait and see” approach. Powell’s statement that the economy remains in a “solid position” helped calm some investor concerns and sparked a market rebound.
Optimism grew on news of U.S.-U.K. trade agreement announcements – the first since the Trump administration unveiled reciprocal tariffs on April 2. However, despite resumed dialogue with China, investors recognize that a swift resolution to trade tensions remains unlikely.
Thursday’s Producer Price Index will show inflation at the wholesale level, often foreshadowing the following month’s CPI. Import and export price data will be released Friday, adding to the inflation picture. Monday’s release of the monthly federal budget for April will provide an update on government debt levels.
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