Key Takeaways
- Tesla shares have climbed approximately 30% in the last 30 days, though they’re still trailing 4% for the year
- Elon Musk is currently visiting China, seeking regulatory clearance for Full Self-Driving in the world’s largest auto market
- The company disclosed 1.3 million FSD subscribers at the close of Q1 2026, a significant jump from 850,000 in the prior year
- Model S and Model X assembly has been discontinued to free up factory space for Optimus humanoid robot production
- Global robotaxi deployment at scale is anticipated by 2030, according to McKinsey projections
Shares of Tesla ($TSLA) are currently changing hands near $448, representing an approximately 30% gain during the past month, even as the stock continues to lag roughly 4% below where it began the year.
The equity experienced early morning strength on Wednesday before retreating, ultimately settling at $432.08āa decline of 0.3%āas CEO Elon Musk departed for China aboard Air Force One. Accompanying him were prominent American business executives, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Apple’s Tim Cook, and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg.
The journey carries significant implications. Tesla is pursuing authorization to market its Full Self-Driving (FSD) advanced driver-assistance system throughout China, an expansion that could substantially grow its subscription revenue.
Currently priced at $99 monthly in the United States, Tesla concluded Q1 2026 with 1.3 million FSD subscribers, representing growth from approximately 850,000 subscribers twelve months earlier.
Securing Chinese market access would represent a critical milestone for an enterprise that has positioned its future strategy around artificial intelligence-powered offeringsāincluding FSD, autonomous taxi services, and humanoid robotics.
During Tuesday’s trading, the stock retreated 2.6%, ending a four-session rally that had delivered gains exceeding 14%. Much of that upward momentum stemmed from investor enthusiasm surrounding the potential China FSD agreement.
Tesla’s core automotive operations have encountered headwinds. The manufacturer confronts weakening vehicle demand, a relatively stagnant product portfolio, and intensifying worldwide competition.
Instead of prioritizing aggressive vehicle lineup updates, Musk has redirected capital and attention toward strategic long-term initiatives.
Optimus Production Begins
Earlier this month, Tesla discontinued manufacturing of both the Model S and Model X vehicles. The freed production capacity is being transformed into an assembly facility for the company’s Optimus humanoid robot platform.
Market participants are eagerly anticipating details regarding Optimus version three, which may be unveiled during the summer months.
Tesla has maintained strict information control about the project. During the Q1 earnings discussion, Musk explained that rival companies conduct “frame-by-frame analysis” of Tesla’s public demonstrations and rapidly replicate whatever innovations they observe.
Autonomous Taxi Market Potential
Beyond humanoid robotics, the autonomous taxi opportunity represents a cornerstone of the bullish investment thesis surrounding Tesla.
McKinsey & Co. forecasts that robotaxi services will achieve widespread global deployment approximately by 2030. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood estimates the total addressable market opportunity at $5 trillion to $10 trillion.
Tesla has already commenced production of its Cybercab vehicle, a purpose-built model designed specifically for autonomous taxi operations. Pilot programs are currently operational across multiple metropolitan regions.
Tesla’s established manufacturing infrastructure, currently appearing disadvantageous amid softening automotive sales, could transform into a competitive strength as autonomous taxi demand accelerates.
The company reported 1.3 million FSD subscriptions at Q1 2026’s conclusion, with substantial growth potential should Chinese regulators grant market approval.
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