TLDR:
- Tesla expected to deliver around 461,000 EVs in Q3 2024
- Stock up over 20% in past month due to optimism about robotaxi event and China sales
- Analysts predict potential sales beat and margin improvement
- Cybertruck sales climbing, could impact overall delivery numbers
- Tesla shares gained 32% in Q3, breaking above long-term downtrend line
Tesla is gearing up to release its third-quarter delivery numbers as early as Wednesday, October 3, 2024.
This report is eagerly anticipated by investors and analysts alike, as it could potentially drive further gains in the company’s stock price, which has already seen significant growth in recent weeks.
Wall Street analysts expect Tesla to deliver approximately 461,000 electric vehicles globally in the third quarter of 2024. This figure would represent an increase from the second quarter’s delivery of about 444,000 vehicles. However, it would still fall short of the 466,000 EVs delivered in the same quarter last year. Despite this potential year-over-year decrease, the overall sentiment surrounding Tesla’s performance remains positive.
The company’s stock has experienced a notable surge, rising over 20% in the past month alone.
This uptick can be attributed to several factors, including growing excitement about Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi event scheduled for October 10, as well as encouraging news from China indicating rising sales in that market.
Analysts have been adjusting their forecasts in light of recent data. Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter has raised his delivery estimates to 459,000 EVs globally for the third quarter, with a full-year forecast of 1.75 million units. Potter believes Tesla may report its best quarter ever in China, a crucial market for the company’s growth strategy.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy is even more optimistic, projecting deliveries to exceed 470,000 units in Q3, which would easily beat consensus estimates. Levy bases his forecast on July data for global EV sales and August registrations and production data from China. If realized, this would mark Tesla’s first quarterly result in 2024 with positive year-over-year growth.
Beyond delivery numbers, there’s growing optimism about Tesla’s profitability. Dan Ives at Wedbush predicts that the company’s margins may finally start to improve after a year of decline. Ives suggests that price cuts, which have weighed on Tesla’s profitability, are now mostly in the rearview mirror, potentially removing a significant overhang from the company’s financial story.
An interesting development in Tesla’s product lineup is the increasing sales of the Cybertruck. S&P Global Mobility data showed that Tesla sold over 5,000 Cybertrucks in July, with year-to-date sales reaching 17,722. Deutsche Bank predicts Cybertruck sales could hit 13,500 in the third quarter.
While this would only represent about 3% of overall sales, it could be the difference between a sales beat or miss for Tesla’s overall deliveries.
From a technical analysis perspective, Tesla’s stock has shown strong performance in recent months. The shares broke above a multi-year downtrend line on above-average volume in early July, and have since moved back above both the long-term downtrend line and the 200-week moving average.
This technical strength has contributed to the stock’s impressive 32% gain in the third quarter of 2024.
As investors look ahead, there are several key price levels to watch on Tesla’s chart. The $265 area could present some resistance, as it aligns with several important peaks and troughs from recent years. If the stock breaks decisively above this level, the next major resistance could be around $300, near prominent swing highs from 2021 and 2022.
On the downside, the $225 level could provide support, as it aligns with significant price action from late 2022 to mid-2024.
With Tesla’s third-quarter delivery report imminent and the company’s “Robotaxi Day” event just around the corner, October promises to be an eventful month for the electric vehicle maker.
