TLDR
- Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China are set to take effect on Tuesday, creating market uncertainty
- U.S. stock futures rose Monday despite February losses, with S&P 500 futures up 0.5% and Nasdaq futures up 0.8%
- Cryptocurrencies gained after Trump announced plans for a U.S. strategic cryptocurrency reserve including Bitcoin and Ethereum
- Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin warns S&P 500 rally may be temporary due to economic concerns
- Upcoming February jobs report and retail earnings from Target and Costco will provide insight into economic health
U.S. stock futures pushed higher on Monday as investors navigated a complex landscape of impending tariffs, upcoming economic data, and retail earnings reports. The market movement comes after a volatile February that left major indexes with monthly losses.
S&P 500 futures climbed 0.5% in Monday trading. This positive movement follows a challenging period for the benchmark index.
Tech stocks showed particular strength. Nasdaq 100 futures rose approximately 0.8%, outpacing other indexes.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures also moved higher, gaining 0.4% as the trading week began. All three major U.S. indexes are attempting to recover from February losses.
The market faces immediate uncertainty regarding President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico are scheduled to take effect on Tuesday.
The March 4 implementation date has not been delayed further, despite previous postponements. The planned duties of 25% could potentially be lower, according to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who described it as a “fluid situation.”
New tariffs on China are also set to begin on March 4. Reports indicate Beijing may be preparing retaliatory measures targeting U.S. agricultural products.
This week’s economic data could shape market direction
This week brings critical economic data that could shape market direction. The February nonfarm-payrolls report, due Friday, will provide insights into job growth and unemployment rates.
Retail earnings reports will also draw attention. Target and Costco results could reveal important information about consumer spending trends.
Recent data has raised concerns about consumer resilience. Consumer spending unexpectedly fell in January by the largest amount in four years.
The cryptocurrency market received a boost from unexpected news. President Trump announced plans for a U.S. strategic cryptocurrency reserve that would include Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano.
Bitcoin, which had fallen 17% in February to below $79,000 per token, surged above $94,000 following Trump’s announcement. The token held onto much of these gains in Monday trading.
Strategists have expressed caution about the market outlook
Goldman Sachs strategists have expressed caution about the market outlook. David Kostin warned that any rebound in the S&P 500 is likely to be temporary amid ongoing economic concerns.
Kostin noted that investor exposure declined last week as the S&P 500 briefly erased its 2025 gains. However, he indicated that positioning isn’t low enough yet to suggest sustainable upside potential.
The Goldman strategist reduced his full-year earnings growth estimate from 11% to 9%. He stated that “an improvement in the U.S. economic growth outlook will be required to fully reverse the recent equity market weakness.”
Unlike the robust returns of 2024, Kostin believes 2025 equity returns “will be more modest than last year and match the trajectory of earnings growth.” This assessment comes after U.S. stocks have faltered on concerns about tech valuations and the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s America-First policies.
While the S&P 500 has gained only about 1% this year, the MSCI All-Country World Index excluding the U.S. has rallied 5%, highlighting the underperformance of U.S. equities in the global context.
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