TLDR
- Solana (SOL) is facing a major bearish divergence on its weekly chart, potentially threatening its price stability
- A critical support zone has formed at the Fibonacci level of 1.618 ($117), which must hold to prevent further decline
- ETF speculation is building with prediction markets pricing a 90% chance of approval
- Technical analysts suggest SOL could target $180-$200 if momentum aligns with historical trends
- Solana is positioned favorably for the real-world asset (RWA) tokenization market due to its fast transactions and low fees
Solana (SOL) finds itself at a pivotal moment in its price journey after hitting an all-time high nearly three months ago. The cryptocurrency is now displaying contradictory signals that have traders and investors carefully monitoring its next move. Recent price volatility has raised concerns about a potential extended decline, even as speculation builds around a possible ETF approval that could drive significant growth.
The altcoin is currently trading in a key support zone after failing to maintain momentum above its cycle high of $295. Market experts point to troubling technical signals that could determine where prices head next.
Trader Mags has identified what they describe as a “massive bearish divergence” on SOL’s weekly chart. This pattern often indicates weakening momentum despite price movements suggesting otherwise.
The cryptocurrency is now testing a horizontal support level that has remained steady over the past year. This coincides with the Fibonacci level of 1.618 at $117, creating a critical zone that must hold to prevent further decline.
Technical analysis shows the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to 40, a level that has previously acted as solid support for SOL. Analysts are closely watching this indicator for signs of a potential momentum shift.
Two Possible Scenarios Emerge
According to Mags, two scenarios could unfold from here. The first involves a temporary bounce that eventually loses steam, leading to a breakdown of both horizontal support and the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
#Solana – Unbiased Analysis
Solana hit a new all-time high of $295 this cycle but failed to hold above it.
A massive bearish divergence is in play on the weekly chart, and the price is now testing a key horizontal support that has held strong for the past year.
The 1.618… pic.twitter.com/X1QCVaF0Kn
— Mags (@thescalpingpro) March 31, 2025
The second, more optimistic scenario suggests a strong bounce from current levels that continues into a new all-time high. The RSI still has room to move higher, which could reflect growing positive momentum.
Adding complexity to the analysis, the SOL/BTC pair is testing the 0.618 Fibonacci support level after being rejected from a falling trendline. This provides additional context for the technical outlook.
Analyst Rose Premium Signals offers a more bullish perspective, suggesting Solana is maintaining a major structural support level after a healthy correction. If momentum builds and price breaks out, the analyst sees potential targets at $297, $338, and $385.
ETF Hopes Fuel Bullish Outlook
While technical signals remain mixed, speculation around a potential Solana ETF is building significant buzz. Prediction markets are now pricing a 90% chance of approval, according to Crypto Rand.
A regulated Solana ETF could attract billions in institutional investment, potentially driving prices toward the $180-$200 range. This would mirror the pattern seen following Bitcoin’s ETF approval.
The Trump administration’s reported openness to adding US-based coins to a strategic exchange reserve has added to the positive sentiment. Some observers note that Trump’s own meme coin launched on the Solana blockchain, perhaps signaling confidence in its technology.
Analyst Coinvo has identified a crucial trendline that has historically triggered rallies of 20-30%. With Solana again testing this level, a breakout could be imminent if historical patterns repeat.
This $SOL re-test could mark the bottom before the rally! 👀 pic.twitter.com/ISq0XnuAPq
— Coinvo (@ByCoinvo) March 30, 2025
RWA Potential Adds Long-Term Value
Beyond immediate price action, Solana’s position in the emerging tokenized real-world asset (RWA) market offers another potential growth catalyst. This market could be valued at up to $240 billion.
Analyst SolanaNews.sol suggests the RWA market may migrate to Solana due to its fast transactions, minimal fees, and superior scalability. These features make it well-suited for tokenizing assets at scale.
Institutional players exploring blockchain solutions for financial instruments like private credit, treasury bonds, and real estate could find Solana’s infrastructure appealing. This adoption would strengthen Solana’s position in the evolving digital asset landscape.
Elliott wave analyst ElliotXSolana identifies the $109-$114 range as a key decision point. The recent correction has brought SOL’s price into the 61.8%-88.7% Fibonacci retracement zone, historically where buyers have stepped in.
If support holds, a relief rally toward $135-$145 could materialize. However, a breakdown below $105 might confirm a bearish continuation, leading to lower prices.
The next 24-48 hours will be crucial for determining SOL’s direction. Traders are watching for either a strong bounce signaling momentum shift or a breakdown confirming bearish control.
As Solana approaches this high-stakes decision point, the convergence of technical patterns, ETF speculation, and long-term use case potential creates a complex picture for investors to navigate.
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