TLDR
- Rivian reports Q2 earnings August 5 with Wall Street expecting narrower loss of $0.66 per share versus $1.26 last year
- Vehicle deliveries fell 23% year-over-year to 10,661 units in Q2, continuing weak delivery trend from Q1’s 36% drop
- Multiple analysts downgraded stock recently – Guggenheim cut from Buy to Hold, Deutsche Bank lowered price target to $13
- Options traders expect 10.3% stock move in either direction following earnings announcement
- Company revised annual production guidance down to 47,000-49,000 vehicles due to component shortages
Rivian Automotive stock closed at $12.38 Monday, down 3.8% as investors brace for the electric vehicle maker’s second-quarter earnings report. The company will announce results after market close Tuesday, August 5.
Wall Street analysts project Rivian will report a loss of $0.66 per share for Q2. That would represent a substantial improvement from the $1.26 loss posted in the same quarter last year. Revenue is expected to climb 11.4% year-over-year to $1.29 billion.
The revenue growth forecast comes despite continued weakness in vehicle deliveries. Rivian delivered 10,661 vehicles in the second quarter, marking a 23% decline from the prior year period.
This delivery drop follows an even steeper 36.4% plunge in Q1 deliveries to 8,640 units. The weak delivery numbers have become a persistent concern for investors tracking the company’s progress.
Recent production data shows Rivian manufactured 13,157 vehicles in the third quarter. The company has revised its full-year production guidance to 47,000-49,000 vehicles due to ongoing component shortages.
Analyst Downgrades Pile Up
Guggenheim analyst Ronald Jewsikow recently downgraded Rivian from Buy to Hold. He also cut his price target from $16 to $13, citing softer sales projections for the company’s R1 vehicles.
Jewsikow reduced his 2028 volume estimate to 150,000 units from a previous 185,000 forecast. He expressed concerns about U.S. electric vehicle policy changes and their impact on emissions credits.
Deutsche Bank followed suit by lowering its price target to $13 from $14. Canaccord also trimmed its target to $28 from $30.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard maintained a Hold rating with a $15 price target. He pointed to production challenges related to preparations for the 2026 model year.
The analyst community remains cautious about several factors. These include lower delivery expectations, worsening macro conditions, and potential tariff impacts. The removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit adds another layer of uncertainty.
Market Expectations Run High
Options traders are positioning for volatile moves following the earnings announcement. TipRanks’ Options tool indicates traders expect a 10.3% stock movement in either direction.
This expected volatility reflects the high stakes surrounding Rivian’s quarterly report. Investors will scrutinize production updates, margin improvements, and cash flow metrics.
TipRanks’ AI analyst assigned a Neutral rating with a $13 price target. The analysis noted that revenue growth potential gets offset by financial challenges and valuation concerns.
Wall Street consensus shows a Hold rating based on seven Buy recommendations, 15 Holds, and three Sell ratings. The average price target of $14.92 suggests 20.5% upside potential from current levels.
Rivian faces ongoing class action lawsuits related to alleged securities law violations. These legal challenges add another element of uncertainty for shareholders to consider.
The company’s after-hours price of $12.61 showed modest gains following Monday’s regular session decline. Trading activity may pick up as the earnings announcement approaches.
Rivian stock has dropped approximately 7% year-to-date as the EV maker grapples with production challenges and intense competition. The upcoming R2 vehicle launch in the first half of 2026 represents a key catalyst that analysts are watching closely.
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