TLDR
- Project Eleven launched the “Q-Day Prize” competition offering 1 BTC to anyone who can crack a Bitcoin key using a quantum computer
- More than 6 million Bitcoin (worth ~$500 billion) could be at risk from future quantum computing advances
- Contestants must use Shor’s algorithm on a quantum computer to break as many bits of a Bitcoin key as possible by April 5, 2026
- Current quantum computers can handle 105-156 qubits, while experts estimate 2,000 qubits would be needed to break a 256-bit ECC key
- The competition aims to measure the quantum threat to Bitcoin and accelerate development of quantum-resistant solutions
Project Eleven, a quantum computing research firm, has launched a competition offering 1 Bitcoin (currently valued at around $84,100) to whoever can crack the largest portion of a Bitcoin encryption key using a quantum computer. The “Q-Day Prize” competition, announced on April 16, will run until April 5, 2026, and is open to both individuals and teams.
We just launched the Q-Day Prize.
1 BTC to the first team to break a toy version of Bitcoin’s cryptography using a quantum computer.
Deadline: April 5, 2026
Mission: Protect 6M BTC (over $500B)— Project 11 (@qdayclock) April 16, 2025
The purpose of the contest is straightforward – to test how urgent the quantum threat is to Bitcoin’s security and to encourage the development of quantum-proof solutions. “10 million+ addresses have exposed public keys. Quantum computing is steadily progressing. Nobody has rigorously benchmarked this threat yet,” Project Eleven wrote on X.
According to the competition rules, participants must use Shor’s algorithm on a quantum computer to crack as many bits of a Bitcoin key as possible. The challenge doesn’t require breaking a full 256-bit Bitcoin key, which is still beyond current quantum computing capabilities. Even cracking a 3-bit key would be considered a major achievement, according to the organizers.
The Quantum Threat to Bitcoin
The contest highlights the potential vulnerability of Bitcoin to quantum computing advances. Project Eleven claims that more than 6 million Bitcoin – worth approximately $500 billion – could be at risk if quantum computers become powerful enough to crack elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) keys.
This risk exists because many Bitcoin addresses have exposed public keys. These exposed keys could theoretically be broken by sufficiently powerful quantum computers running Shor’s algorithm, which can factor large numbers into their prime components much more efficiently than classical computers.
No ECC key used in real-world applications has ever been cracked. However, the competition organizers note that whoever succeeds in breaking even a small test key could “go down in cryptography history.”
Current State of Quantum Computing
Project Eleven points out that several platforms currently offer quantum computing access, including Amazon Web Services and IBM. Current quantum computers like IBM’s Heron chip and Google’s Willow can perform computations with 156 and 105 qubits respectively.
Microsoft, Google, and now Amazon have revealed that they are investing massive resources into developing quantum computing hardware.
Yet there are still folks in denial who think the entire field is a scam that will never materialize results.
— Jameson Lopp (@lopp) February 27, 2025
While these numbers are far from the estimated 2,000 logical qubits needed to break a 256-bit ECC key, they represent progress that causes concern among some experts. Project Eleven believes a 2,000-qubit quantum system could potentially be developed within the next decade.
The competition requires participants to use “pure quantum power” without classical shortcuts or hybrid tricks. This means contestants must rely solely on quantum computing capabilities to tackle the challenge, providing a clear benchmark of current quantum threats.
Industry Perspectives on the Threat
Bitcoin cypherpunk Jameson Lopp recently addressed the quantum computing concern, saying the question of how worried the industry should be is currently “unanswerable.” He added, “I think it’s far from a crisis, but given the difficulty in changing Bitcoin it’s worth starting to seriously discuss.”
In February, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino expressed confidence that quantum-proof Bitcoin addresses will be implemented well before any “serious threat” emerges. While acknowledging the concern is valid, he suggested the industry has time to prepare.
Prediction.
Quantum computing is still very far from any meaningful risk of breaking Bitcoin cryptography.
Quantum resistant addresses will eventually be added to Bitcoin before there is any serious threat.All people alive (and that have access to their wallets) will move…
— Paolo Ardoino 🤖 (@paoloardoino) February 8, 2025
The competition comes amid growing awareness of potential quantum threats to cryptographic systems. Solutions like the Quantum-Resistant Address Migration Protocol and Coarse-Grained Boson Sampling have been proposed, though both would require a hard fork of the Bitcoin network.
Project Eleven’s competition serves as both a practical assessment of current quantum computing capabilities and a wake-up call for the cryptocurrency industry. By offering 1 BTC as a prize, the firm has created a tangible incentive for researchers to demonstrate the practical limits of today’s quantum systems.
The deadline of April 5, 2026, gives contestants nearly two years to work on the challenge. The results will provide valuable data on how quickly the industry needs to implement quantum-resistant solutions to protect Bitcoin’s security in the long term.
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