TLDR:
- Prediction markets show over $1 billion in bets on the Trump-Harris presidential race
- Harris leads Trump by a slim margin overall, but is favored in key swing states
- Wisconsin emerges as a key battleground state with conflicting poll and prediction market data
- Bitcoin’s short-term outlook appears bearish despite some bullish indicators
- Chinese game “Black Myth: Wukong” achieves success, but prediction markets doubt it will win Game of the Year
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is heating up, with prediction markets offering a unique perspective on the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Over $1 billion in bets have been placed on Polymarket, a popular prediction market platform, highlighting the growing interest in using these markets to forecast political outcomes.
As of the latest data, Harris holds a narrow one-point lead over Trump in overall betting. However, the picture becomes more complex when examining individual swing states.
Harris appears to have an advantage in four of the six key battleground states, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, which have historically leaned Democratic in recent elections, with the exception of 2016.
Wisconsin has emerged as a particularly intriguing state to watch. Traditional polls, such as a recent New York Times/Siena College survey, show a tight race with Harris at 49% and Trump at 47%.
In contrast, Polymarket traders give Harris a more substantial 56% probability of winning the state. This discrepancy highlights the ongoing debate about the relative accuracy of prediction markets compared to traditional polling methods, especially in states like Wisconsin where polling has often been unreliable.
The surge in prediction market activity extends beyond politics into the world of cryptocurrency.
Despite recent positive indicators for Bitcoin, including interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and liquidity injections by China, prediction market users remain cautious about its short-term prospects.
Polymarket data shows only a 41% chance of Bitcoin trading above $65,000 by October 4, despite increased trading of $75,000 call options, which is typically seen as a bullish sign.
This bearish sentiment in prediction markets contrasts with some analysts’ optimistic outlooks based on traditional market indicators. The divergence could suggest that traders are factoring in concerns about Bitcoin being potentially overbought following its recent price surge.
As the election approaches and market conditions continue to evolve, prediction markets are likely to remain a closely watched indicator of potential outcomes.
