TLDR
- Goldman Sachs has elevated Porsche AG from a “neutral” stance to “buy,” establishing a 12-month price objective of €59, up from the previous €39 mark
- With shares trading at €47.73, the revised target represents approximately 23.6% potential appreciation
- While Goldman reduced its FY2026 earnings per share projection by 10.2% to €1.79, it increased the FY2028 EPS forecast by 11.7% to reach €3.37
- Chinese market deliveries are projected to decline to approximately 28,000 vehicles in FY2026, a dramatic reduction from the 93,000 units delivered in FY2022
- An independent DCF valuation from Simply Wall St estimates fair value at €41.11, indicating potential overvaluation at present trading levels
Goldman Sachs has elevated Porsche AG (P911) from “neutral” to “buy” status this Thursday, simultaneously increasing its 12-month price objective to €59 from the prior €39 benchmark. With shares closing at €47.73 before the announcement, the updated target signals approximately 23.6% potential upside.
Porsche Automobil Holding SE, POAHF
The investment bank now applies a 20x target multiple — elevated from the previous 15x — based on an equal weighting of FY2027 and FY2028 earnings projections. This revised price objective translates to 14.5x when measured against anticipated FY2029 earnings.
Goldman has reduced its FY2026 earnings per share projection by 10.2% to €1.79, acknowledging short-term obstacles. However, the firm increased its FY2028 EPS outlook by 11.7% to €3.37, and anticipates a robust 30% EPS compound annual growth rate through 2030.
The adjusted forecasts stem from two primary catalysts: normalization of 911 product mix and reductions in indirect operating expenses.
Regarding the 911 lineup, Goldman highlighted that supplier disruptions caused by force-majeure events during the latter half of 2024 shifted initial deliveries of the new 992.2 generation toward entry-level and mid-range configurations. This dynamic has temporarily suppressed average selling prices.
Goldman currently projects 911 ASP expansion of approximately 12% in FY2026 followed by 5% in FY2027, substantially exceeding Visible Alpha consensus projections of 5.9% and 2.4% respectively.
Product mix is anticipated to stabilize by 2027 — mirroring the trajectory of the preceding 992 generation, which achieved maturity during its third to fourth year.
Cost Structure in Focus
On the expense side, Goldman observed that Porsche’s selling, general and administrative costs represented 12.9% of consolidated revenue in FY2025. This compares unfavorably to Ferrari at 9%, BMW at 7.9%, and Mercedes-Benz at 9.2%. Opportunities for efficiency improvements exist.
The firm also highlighted that merely 76.5% of Porsche’s 41,800-person workforce falls under the company’s employment protection agreement extending through 2030 — a factor warranting attention as cost optimization initiatives accelerate.
Consolidated EBIT is projected at €2.22 billion for FY2026, advancing to €3.11 billion in FY2027 and €4.17 billion in FY2028. Operating margins are anticipated to expand from 6.7% in FY2026 to 9.7% by FY2028.
China Remains a Drag
The Chinese market continues to present volume challenges. Goldman anticipates merely 28,000 deliveries in FY2026 and 23,000 in FY2027 — a precipitous decline from 93,000 vehicles in FY2022. China’s contribution to total deliveries is expected to contract to 11% in FY2026 and 9.5% in FY2027.
Total corporate deliveries are forecast at 250,459 vehicles in FY2026 and 246,201 in FY2027, reflecting year-over-year volume contractions of 10% and 2% respectively.
Not all analysts embrace Goldman’s bullish perspective. A discounted cash flow analysis conducted by Simply Wall St establishes Porsche’s intrinsic value at €41.11 per share — approximately 17.5% beneath the recent closing price of €48.29. The analytical firm assigned Porsche a valuation quality score of 0 out of 6, noting a P/E ratio of 140.55x compared to the industry benchmark of 15.68x.
Over the past 30 trading days, P911 has advanced 13%. Year-to-date performance stands at a more conservative 1.4% gain.
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