TLDR
- Palantir stock gained 2.33% to $160.84 despite CEO selling $60+ million in shares
- RBC analyst sets Wall Street’s lowest price target at $45, predicting 70% decline
- Company trades at 250x forward P/E despite 48% revenue growth and 93% commercial surge
- Government contracts still dominate at 70% of revenue, creating dependency risks
- Stock up 100% year-to-date and 2,300% since early 2023, leading S&P 500 gains
Palantir Technologies rose 2.33% to $160.84 Monday, defying insider selling pressure and bearish analyst calls. The data analytics giant traded on heavy volume of 82 million shares, surpassing its three-month average.
CEO Alex Karp recently sold over $60 million in shares, according to reports. Short interest has climbed since mid-August as some investors take profits from the year’s gains.
The stock remains 15% below its $189.46 peak but sits far above January’s $29.31 low. Palantir has gained nearly 100% this year, making it the S&P 500’s top performer.
Wall Street’s Most Bearish Call
RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria issued the street’s most pessimistic forecast. His $45 price target implies 72% downside from current levels.
Jaluria calls Palantir’s 250x forward price-to-earnings ratio “unsustainable.” He argues the valuation remains disconnected from fundamentals despite strong growth metrics.
The company posted 48% revenue growth in Q2 2025. U.S. commercial revenue jumped 93% year-over-year, showing diversification progress.
However, 17 analysts rate the stock “Hold” while only four recommend buying. Four analysts suggest selling or reducing positions, reflecting widespread valuation concerns.
Government Dependence Remains Key Risk
Commercial revenue climbed from $159 million to $306 million year-over-year. Yet this segment represents just 30.5% of total revenue, with government contracts dominating.
This concentration creates dual risks for investors. Budget cuts could impact core operations while political changes might affect partnerships.
Jaluria acknowledges the AIP platform’s success but says Palantir’s transformation remains incomplete. He warns retail speculation could worsen any correction.
Valuation Defense
Some analysts defend the premium pricing. Mizuho’s Gregg Moskowitz cites Palantir’s unique position in AI commercialization and government digitization.
Commercial business has grown over 20% quarter-over-quarter for multiple periods. This consistency suggests the diversification strategy is working.
Since early 2023, shares have surged over 2,300%. The dramatic run-up has created a wide valuation gap between bulls and bears.
Palantir’s next earnings report will test whether commercial growth can accelerate further. The company needs continued diversification to reduce government revenue dependence and justify its premium valuation.
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