TLDR
- On Semiconductor reached a fresh 52-week peak at $99.64, surging 145% year-over-year
- B. Riley elevated ON to Buy status, increasing its target price from $64 to $115
- Craig Ellis from B. Riley suggests the cyclical bottom is now in the rearview mirror
- First quarter 2026 earnings scheduled for May 4, with projected revenue of $1.435B–$1.535B
- Lead times for Onsemi MOSFET products have stretched to 26 weeks according to Baird analysis
On Semiconductor has delivered an impressive performance recently. Shares climbed to $99.64 during this week’s trading session, marking a fresh 52-week peak and extending a remarkable rally that has propelled the stock upward by 145% over the trailing twelve months.
ON Semiconductor Corporation, ON
This momentum coincides with B. Riley’s Craig Ellis elevating ON shares to Buy from a prior Neutral stance, while simultaneously raising the firm’s price objective from $64 to $115—a near doubling of the previous target.
Ellis announced this upgrade in anticipation of ON’s first quarter 2026 financial results, scheduled for release on May 4. His investment rationale centers on the belief that the cyclical headwinds have subsided, and the semiconductor manufacturer’s strategic emphasis on power chips, silicon carbide technology for electric vehicles, and industrial automation solutions creates a favorable foundation for recovery.
This represents one of the most bullish position changes on a domestic chip manufacturer this season. At the time of the analyst’s call, ON was changing hands near $98 during intraday trading.
Bank of America Securities similarly elevated ON to Buy status in recent weeks, highlighting the firm’s artificial intelligence competencies, its Treo product portfolio, and a freshly approved $6 billion stock repurchase authorization extending over three years.
CEO Hassane El-Khoury has communicated that the organization is observing “increasing signs of stabilization” across its primary markets—messaging that resonates with the optimistic narrative analysts are currently constructing.
Earnings and Financials
Fiscal year 2025 revenue totaled $5.995 billion, representing a 15% decline compared to the prior year. Nevertheless, despite the top-line contraction, free cash flow achieved a company record of $1.418 billion annually.
First quarter 2026 outlook anticipates revenue ranging from $1.435 billion to $1.535 billion, with earnings per share projected between $0.56 and $0.66. This guidance indicates sequential stabilization—precisely what market participants have been anticipating.
The equity currently trades at a trailing P/E multiple of 307x, which appears elevated. However, the forward P/E ratio of 31x captures the earnings rebound that analysts are incorporating into their models.
Market capitalization stands approximately at $35 billion. Wall Street sentiment remains divided: 11 analysts maintain Buy recommendations while 23 rate it as Hold.
InvestingPro metrics suggest the stock trades above its Fair Value calculation, categorizing it among the most richly valued securities in today’s market environment.
Supply Chain Tightening
An additional positive catalyst is emerging beneath the surface. Baird’s research indicates that semiconductor delivery timelines are expanding across various product categories.
MOSFET lead times average 25 weeks throughout the industry. Specifically for Onsemi’s MOSFET offerings, lead times have extended to 26 weeks—evidence that demand growth is outpacing supply availability.
This type of supply constraint typically supports enhanced pricing dynamics, which would facilitate margin improvement from the 38% non-GAAP gross margin low point experienced during the previous cycle.
Challenges persist on the horizon. Barclays highlighted ON’s substantial exposure to automotive and Chinese markets when establishing coverage at Equal-Weight.
Insider transaction patterns warrant attention as well. CFO stock sales during April introduce a cautionary element to an otherwise optimistic setup.
Market focus now shifts to May 4, when On Semiconductor unveils Q1 2026 financial performance. The earnings announcement will provide the initial substantive validation of whether the stabilization narrative proves accurate.
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