TLDR
- Nvidia stock reports Q2 2025 earnings Wednesday with $46.2 billion revenue expected
- China chip restrictions create $8 billion quarterly revenue hit for NVDA stock
- Options traders price 6% move representing $260 billion market value swing potential
- Data center revenue forecast at $41.2 billion vs $26.2 billion year-over-year
- NVDA stock up 35% year-to-date despite Trump administration policy changes
Nvidia stock prepares for its most watched earnings report Wednesday as the AI chipmaker faces mounting questions about its $4 trillion valuation.
NVDA stock closed Monday at $179.81, up 1.02% as investors position ahead of second quarter results. The semiconductor giant reports after market close Wednesday.
Wall Street expects adjusted earnings per share of $1.01 on revenue of $46.2 billion. These figures represent 49% EPS growth and 53% revenue growth year-over-year.
Options market data shows traders pricing roughly 6% price movement in either direction. This translates to approximately $260 billion in potential market value swing for NVDA stock.
China Revenue Creates Major Headwind
Trump administration policy changes create uncertainty for Nvidia stock’s China business. The government initially banned chip sales to China in April before reversing course in July.
New regulations require Nvidia to pay 15% of Chinese sales to the U.S. government. Management warned during Q1 earnings of an $8 billion bottom-line impact for the current quarter.
Trump also announced 100% tariffs on semiconductor imports unless companies build domestically. Nvidia stock should qualify for exemptions from these tariffs.
Chinese officials recently warned local companies about potential security risks in Nvidia chips. The company denies these allegations and works with authorities to address concerns.
Data Center Growth Drives NVDA Stock Performance
Data center revenue takes center stage with Wall Street expecting $41.2 billion versus $26.2 billion last year. Gaming revenue, Nvidia’s second-largest segment, should reach $3.8 billion.
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh reports improving GB200 rack manufacturing yields approaching 85%. Full-year Grace Blackwell rack shipments now track closer to 30,000 units.
Investors will focus on GB200 super chip shipment updates and upcoming Blackwell Ultra chip development. AI spending commentary and China sales strategy remain key discussion points.
Wedbush raised its NVDA stock price target from $175 to $210 citing positive demand feedback. Baird expects strong July quarter results driven by robust GB200 sales momentum.
However, third quarter guidance could disappoint if management excludes direct China revenue from projections. This uncertainty keeps some analysts cautious despite strong fundamentals.
Nvidia stock became the first company to surpass $4 trillion market capitalization in July. The milestone underscores the company’s central role in artificial intelligence infrastructure development.
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