TLDR
- Nvidia is approaching a $4 trillion valuation after gaining 15% in June, three times the S&P 500’s performance
- The company could reach $4 trillion in just five trading days based on its current daily average gain of 0.8%
- Nvidia insiders have sold over $1 billion in stock in the past year, including CEO Jensen Huang’s $15 million sale
- The company represents 6.9% of the S&P 500’s weighting and analysts expect 45% earnings growth in Q2
- Nvidia’s stock has risen 1,543% over the past five years driven by AI chip demand
Nvidia stands on the brink of making history. The AI chipmaker could become the first company to reach a $4 trillion valuation within days.
The stock closed June with a 15% gain, crushing the S&P 500’s performance by more than triple. Nvidia’s current market value sits around $3.8 trillion, putting it tantalizingly close to the milestone.
Based on recent trading patterns, the company needs just five more trading days to cross the $4 trillion threshold. That calculation comes from Nvidia’s daily average gain of 0.8% over the past month.
Nvidia is approaching a $4 trillion market cap. pic.twitter.com/jPGqwjhIX2
— Brew Markets (@brewmarkets) June 26, 2025
The journey to this point has been nothing short of remarkable. Nvidia first hit $1 trillion in June 2023 when it shocked Wall Street with AI chip revenue forecasts that obliterated expectations.
It took 262 days to reach $2 trillion. But the pace accelerated dramatically after that, with only 96 days needed to hit $3 trillion on June 5, 2024.
Market Dominance Raises Concentration Concerns
Nvidia’s massive valuation puts some eye-popping numbers into perspective. The company is now worth 36% more than Britain’s entire FTSE 100 index.
It sits just 18% below the value of Japan’s entire Nikkei 225. That’s one company compared to hundreds of others.
Within the S&P 500, Nvidia carries a 6.9% weighting. That edges out Microsoft at 6.7% and dwarfs Apple’s 5.4%.
But here’s where it gets interesting. If Nvidia hits $4 trillion, it would represent 13% of the S&P 500’s total $52 trillion market cap.
Some investors worry about this concentration risk. Robert Ruggirello from Brave Eagle Wealth Management captures the dilemma perfectly.
“I don’t know if new investors should buy a full position of Nvidia at this level with forward PEs north of 30 again, but not owning it is also painful given its extremely large index weighting,” he said.
Earnings Expectations Drive Growth Story
The numbers behind Nvidia’s rise tell a compelling story. Analysts expect the company’s second-quarter earnings to jump 45% year-over-year to 99 cents per share.
That growth rate is 2.5 times higher than the 17% expected for the entire Information Technology sector. It’s nearly 10 times the 5.7% growth forecast for the whole S&P 500.
Without Nvidia’s contribution, the broader index’s growth would look much weaker. The company has become the engine pulling the entire market forward.
Ruggirello acknowledges the momentum continues to attract investors. “Obviously the valuation is less attractive today than it was in April, but momentum and sentiment are powerful draws for investors,” he noted.
His firm continues holding Nvidia positions and is “phasing new clients into Nvidia” despite the stretched valuations.
Insiders Take Profits After Historic Run
While the stock marches higher, company insiders have been cashing out in a big way. Over $1 billion in insider sales have occurred in the past year.
The selling accelerated recently, with over $500 million in stock sales happening just in the last month. These transactions came as Nvidia shares hit new record highs.
CEO Jensen Huang led the insider selling activity. He disclosed the sale of 100,000 shares worth around $15 million in regulatory filings last week.
Huang’s sales are part of a pre-arranged trading plan disclosed in March. The plan allows him to sell up to 6 million shares before the end of 2025.
If he sells all 6 million shares at current prices, Huang would pocket over $900 million. Not a bad payday for the AI pioneer.
Other executives joined the selling spree. Board member Mark Stevens sold $288 million in shares after disclosing plans to sell up to 4 million shares.
EVP of worldwide operations sold $25 million worth. Board members Tench Coxe and Brooke Seawell sold $143 million and $43 million respectively this month.
These sales follow established 10b5-1 trading plans. These arrangements let executives sell shares without surprising the market or creating suspicion about their timing.
The stock has risen 27% over the past year and 14% year-to-date. Over five years, the gains reach a staggering 1,543%.
Nvidia has weathered some headwinds recently. Chinese AI firm DeepSeek’s new model caused a temporary setback earlier this year.
Export controls on advanced AI chips also restrict sales to countries like China. But demand for AI technology keeps driving growth.
Huang remains bullish about AI adoption rates. In a February interview, he described adoption as “incredibly fast” among core technology builders and companies creating consumer AI products.
The company announced plans to manufacture AI supercomputers in the U.S. Advanced Blackwell chips will be made in Arizona, with AI supercomputers built at Texas facilities.
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