TLDR
- Wall Street analyst Phil Panaro predicts Nvidia stock could reach $800 by 2030, a 370% increase from current levels
- Global data center spending is projected to grow from $400 billion in 2024 to $1 trillion by 2028
- Nvidia currently captures about 30% of data center capital expenditures with $115 billion in revenue
- The company’s new Blackwell GPU architecture generated nearly 70% of data center compute revenue in Q1 fiscal 2026
- AI spending continues to accelerate with companies like Alphabet raising capital expenditure guidance by $10 billion
Nvidia has become the poster child for artificial intelligence investing. The stock has surged over 1,000% since 2023 and around 250% since 2024.
Now one Wall Street analyst thinks the rally is far from over. Phil Panaro of the Boston Consulting Group believes Nvidia could hit $800 per share by 2030.
That would represent a 370% increase from current levels. For context, Nvidia is already the world’s largest company by market capitalization at $4.2 trillion.
The bull case rests on explosive growth in data center spending. Third-party research shows global data center capital expenditures reached $400 billion in 2024.
Those same projections suggest spending will hit $1 trillion by 2028. That represents a compound annual growth rate of 26%.
Nvidia has positioned itself perfectly to capture this wave. The company generated $115 billion in data center revenue during fiscal 2025.
That means it captured nearly 30% of total data center spending. If Nvidia maintains this market share as spending doubles, revenue could reach $300 billion by 2028.
Revenue Growth May Fall Short of Ambitious Target
The math gets tricky when extending projections to 2030. Even if data center spending maintains its 26% growth rate through 2030, total expenditures would reach $1.6 trillion.
Nvidia maintaining its 30% share would generate $473 billion in revenue. That represents 217% growth from current levels.
The problem is simple arithmetic. Nvidia would need roughly 350% revenue growth to justify an $800 stock price by 2030.
Current projections fall well short of that target. The company would need to either expand its market share or find new revenue streams.
AI Spending Shows No Signs of Slowing
The good news for Nvidia bulls is that AI spending continues to accelerate. Alphabet recently raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance by $10 billion.
The increase reflects Google Cloud’s investments in servers and data centers. When cloud giants spend on infrastructure, much of that money flows to Nvidia.
Amazon and Microsoft haven’t reported their latest quarterly results yet. But their spending patterns will likely mirror Google’s aggressive investments.
Nvidia’s newest GPU architecture called Blackwell has delivered impressive results. These chips generated almost 70% of data center compute revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2026.
The rapid adoption shows customers are willing to pay premium prices for cutting-edge performance. Blackwell began shipping in volume just earlier this year.
CUDA Platform Creates Competitive Moat
Nvidia’s dominance extends beyond raw chip performance. The company’s CUDA platform has created what many call an unbreachable moat.
CUDA allows programmers to use Nvidia’s GPUs for computing tasks. Millions of developers have learned this proprietary architecture over the years.
There’s also an extensive library of code optimized specifically for Nvidia chips. Switching to competitors would require rewriting years of software development.
Google has developed its own tensor processing units. Amazon deploys Inferentia and Trainium chips for AI workloads.
Despite these alternatives, Nvidia maintains its grip on the AI chip market. The CUDA ecosystem makes switching costs prohibitively high for most customers.
The company continues expanding into new markets beyond traditional data centers. Nvidia’s Omniverse platform enables 3D simulations and digital twins for major corporations.
The Drive platform positions Nvidia to profit from autonomous vehicle adoption. CEO Jensen Huang recently called robotics the company’s largest opportunity after AI.
Nvidia stock trades at over 38 times forward earnings. That’s expensive by traditional metrics but reflects the company’s unique market position.
The latest quarterly results showed revenue growth of about 100% over the past 12 months to $149 billion. Even maintaining current growth rates would deliver strong returns for investors.
Stay Ahead of the Market with Benzinga Pro!
Want to trade like a pro? Benzinga Pro gives you the edge you need in today's fast-paced markets. Get real-time news, exclusive insights, and powerful tools trusted by professional traders:
- Breaking market-moving stories before they hit mainstream media
- Live audio squawk for hands-free market updates
- Advanced stock scanner to spot promising trades
- Expert trade ideas and on-demand support
