TLDR
- Lucid Group has missed ambitious production targets, delivering only 10,241 vehicles in 2024 compared to earlier projections of 90,000
- Former CEO Peter Rawlinson unexpectedly stepped down in February 2025, with COO Marc Winterhoff serving as interim CEO
- The company faces challenges including finding a permanent CEO, setting realistic expectations, reducing dependence on Saudi Arabia, and slowing share dilution
- Lucid is now seeing increased interest from former Tesla owners looking for alternatives
- The Gravity SUV has begun deliveries in April 2025, with Lucid aiming to produce 20,000 vehicles by year-end
Lucid Group, the California-based luxury electric vehicle maker, continues to navigate a challenging path as it expands its product lineup while addressing internal and market pressures. Despite falling short of ambitious early targets, the company is showing signs of potential growth with its new Gravity SUV and increasing interest from former Tesla customers.
Since going public in July 2021, Lucid has struggled to meet its production goals. The company initially projected delivering 20,000 vehicles in 2022, but only managed to produce 4,369 that year. Similarly, it delivered 6,001 vehicles in 2023 and 10,241 in 2024, far below earlier projections of 49,000 and 90,000 respectively.
A major shake-up occurred in February 2025 when CEO Peter Rawlinson, who had led the company for 12 years, unexpectedly stepped down. Chief Operating Officer Marc Winterhoff has taken over as interim CEO while the company searches for a permanent replacement.
The leadership transition comes at a crucial time. Lucid has just launched its second product, the Gravity SUV, and deliveries to customers began in April 2025. The company is targeting production of 20,000 vehicles by the end of the year.
Despite these challenges, Lucid has reported an interesting trend: increasing interest from former Tesla owners. Winterhoff noted that there has been “a clear uptick of interest in Lucid from Tesla buyers because they’re looking for another option.”
This shift comes amid what Winterhoff described as “brand issues” facing Tesla. Elon Musk’s vocal support for President Trump and his role in the White House’s DOGE commission have allegedly alienated some of Tesla’s traditional customer base.
Winterhoff mentioned that some customers were trading in Tesla Model 3s for Lucid’s luxury Air sedan, despite the price difference. The Air sometimes costs twice as much as the Model 3.
Market Position and Competition
The Gravity SUV represents a strategic move into a larger market segment. “Americans want to have an SUV. That’s the quintessential American car,” Winterhoff said. “It’s a much larger addressable market for us, and therefore much larger demand.”
However, the Gravity faces stiff competition. With a starting price of $79,900, it will compete with Tesla’s Model X, Cadillac’s full-size EVs like the Vistiq and Escalade IQ, and luxury offerings from German brands.
Lucid has a potential advantage over foreign competitors: all its vehicles are produced in Arizona. This makes them immune to President Trump’s 25% tariffs on foreign cars. The company is also highly vertically integrated, building battery modules and packs in Arizona.
Financial Challenges
Despite having $6.14 billion in total liquidity at the end of 2024, Lucid faces several financial hurdles. Analysts expect the company to continue burning through billions of dollars annually as it expands production.
The Saudi Arabian government’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) owns more than 60% of Lucid’s shares and placed a decade-long order for 100,000 Air sedans in 2022. This backing has provided stability, but also creates dependency risk.
Lucid has increased its outstanding shares by 87% since its SPAC merger, diluting existing shareholders. Last year, the company spent $286 million on stock-based compensation, representing 35% of its total revenue.
For long-term success, Lucid’s next CEO will need to balance investment in new models with cost-cutting measures. The company plans to launch a cheaper mid-size SUV (rumored to be called “Earth”) in 2026.
In 2022, Rawlinson claimed Lucid could produce more than 500,000 vehicles annually by 2025. The current projection of 20,000 vehicles for 2025 falls far short of that target, indicating a need for more realistic goal-setting going forward.
At current price levels, with a market cap of $7.3 billion, Lucid stock trades at about 5 times this year’s projected sales. While some investors might see it as a potential turnaround play, the company needs to overcome its key challenges and demonstrate sustainable progress before many analysts would recommend it.
The success of the Gravity SUV will be crucial for Lucid’s future. Even at the targeted production level of 20,000 vehicles, Winterhoff expects demand to exceed supply, which could be a positive indicator for the company’s growth potential.
As Lucid works to establish itself in the competitive EV market, addressing leadership stability, setting realistic expectations, diversifying investor backing, and controlling dilution will be essential to winning back investor confidence in the months ahead.
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