Key Takeaways
- Shares of FCX declined approximately 8% during premarket hours Thursday, marking the sharpest single-session decline since September 2025.
- First-quarter adjusted earnings per share reached $0.57 on revenue of $6.23B, surpassing Wall Street estimates.
- Copper and gold shipments declined year-over-year, reflecting diminished production at the Grasberg operation.
- 2026 copper production forecast reduced from 3.4B pounds to 3.1B pounds; gold outlook trimmed from 800K ounces to 650K ounces.
- Production challenges trace back to a fatal September 2025 incident at Grasberg that resulted in seven worker deaths and ongoing operational disruptions.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) delivered first-quarter results that exceeded analyst projections. Yet the market response was decidedly negative.
Shares plummeted roughly 8% in early Thursday trading following the company’s announcement of significantly reduced 2026 production targets for both copper and gold. The decline represents FCX’s steepest single-day percentage loss since September of last year.
On the surface, the quarterly performance looked strong. The company delivered adjusted earnings of 57 cents per share, comfortably exceeding the consensus estimate of 47 cents. Revenue climbed approximately 9% from the prior-year period to $6.23 billion, topping expectations of $5.73 billion.
However, the positive headline figures concealed underlying operational challenges.
Copper shipments totaled 657 million pounds, a substantial decline from 872 million pounds during the corresponding quarter of 2025. Gold shipments reached 121,000 ounces—significantly below prior-year levels, although exceeding the company’s initial guidance of 60,000 ounces for the quarter. Molybdenum provided a rare positive note, with 24 million pounds in sales exceeding both year-ago results and company projections.
The weakness in copper and gold production is directly linked to operational difficulties at Grasberg, the company’s flagship Indonesian mining complex.
Lingering Challenges at Grasberg
A tragic mud rush incident at the facility in September 2025 claimed seven lives and necessitated a temporary shutdown. Operations have continued at diminished capacity since that time, and Thursday’s announcement confirmed that the recovery timeline has extended beyond initial expectations.
Freeport revised its full-year 2026 copper production estimate downward to 3.1 billion pounds from the previously communicated 3.4 billion pounds. Similarly, the gold production forecast dropped to 650,000 ounces from 800,000 ounces. Management attributed both downgrades to an extended recovery period at Grasberg, noting that “modifications to ore loading infrastructure” are required.
These aren’t minor adjustments. The revised guidance reflects a substantial departure from the targets management provided to shareholders in recent months.
Executive Commentary
CEO Kathleen Quirk addressed the situation with measured language. She described Freeport as “America’s Copper Champion” while emphasizing the company’s operational diversity and global reach. “Freeport’s global team is focused on restoring operations at Grasberg safely and sustainably,” Quirk stated.
The company declined to provide a specific timeframe for when Grasberg operations would return to normalized production levels.
By mid-morning Thursday, FCX shares were trading down more than 10%, exceeding the initial premarket losses.
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