Former OpenAI Researcher Takes Bold Position Against Nvidia (NVDA), Loads Up on Bitcoin Mining Stocks

Key Takeaways

Table of Contents

Former OpenAI analyst Leopold Aschenbrenner expanded his fund’s equity holdings from $5.5B to $13.67B during the first quarter of 2026
His top holdings feature Bitcoin mining companies such as IREN, Core Scientific, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark, and multiple others
Investment philosophy: AI expansion faces constraints from power availability and physical space, not semiconductor supply
Concurrently established $7.46B worth of put options targeting Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle, and semiconductor-focused ETFs
Cryptocurrency mining operations possess the critical energy agreements and real estate infrastructure AI firms require

Leopold Aschenbrenner departed OpenAI in 2024 amid allegations of an information security breach. Following his exit, he launched an investment vehicle named Situational Awareness and made a substantial wager on AI infrastructure — particularly targeting entities controlling the real estate and energy resources essential for AI scaling.

According to his Q1 2026 13F regulatory disclosure, filed with the SEC on May 18, his fund’s reported equity positions more than doubled. The portfolio value climbed from $5.52 billion at year-end 2025 to $13.67 billion by March 31, 2026.

The Bitcoin Mining Investment Rationale

Aschenbrenner’s central investment premise is straightforward. Artificial intelligence facilities require enormous electrical capacity and substantial physical footprints. Bitcoin mining operations possess both advantages. They’ve negotiated long-term power supply agreements, established industrial-scale infrastructure, and integrated with electrical distribution networks. These represent strategic assets that technology companies cannot quickly duplicate.

His principal long equity stakes center on cryptocurrency mining enterprises: IREN, Core Scientific, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark, Bitfarms, Bitdeer, and Hive Digital. Additional holdings encompass Bloom Energy, SanDisk, and cloud infrastructure company CoreWeave.

IREN Limited, IREN

The mining companies within his portfolio are actively executing this strategic pivot. Core Scientific, featured among his disclosed investments, has publicly announced intentions to transform its Pecos facility into a 1.5 gigawatt artificial intelligence data center complex, reallocating 300 megawatts of current mining infrastructure.

TeraWulf, another sector participant, disclosed that its artificial intelligence and high-performance computing segment generated $21 million in revenue, surpassing its Bitcoin mining income for the first time during Q1 2026. The industry-wide transformation from cryptocurrency operations to AI hosting is actively underway.

Aschenbrenner elaborated this investment framework comprehensively in a 165-page white paper entitled “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead.” Within this document, he contended that computational infrastructure, rather than algorithmic innovation, would establish the trajectory toward artificial general intelligence.

The Bearish Semiconductor Position

Simultaneously, Aschenbrenner initiated $7.46 billion in put option contracts against chip manufacturers and semiconductor-focused investment vehicles. These derivatives represent bearish positions designed to generate returns if equity values decline.

His most substantial bearish position consisted of a $2.04 billion put contract against the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. Additional positions included a $1.57 billion put targeting Nvidia, a $1.07 billion put on Oracle, and a $1.01 billion put against Broadcom.

This strategy aligns directly with his bullish positions. If the most critical component of AI infrastructure development centers on energy access and physical facilities, semiconductor manufacturers may not capture valuation premiums their current stock prices reflect.

This establishes a correlated trading strategy. His portfolio holds long positions in enterprises controlling land rights and electricity contracts. Simultaneously, he maintains short exposure to processor manufacturers.

The 13F regulatory document was submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 15 and officially processed on May 18. Complete portfolio disclosure information is accessible through the Situational Awareness LP 13F monitoring page on 13f.info.

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