TLDR
- Short-term holders realized $400 million in losses following Trump’s tariff announcement
- ETH bounced off $1,800 support level after a 10% weekend decline
- Whale investors holding 10K-100K ETH increased their balance by 290K ETH
- Staking flows increased with 530K ETH added to staking protocols in the past three weeks
- Technical analysis suggests a potential long-term target of $7,800 if ETH breaks above key resistance
Ethereum is currently trading around $1,820 after experiencing significant selling pressure. The cryptocurrency bounced off the $1,800 support level on Monday following a 10% decline from Friday into the weekend. This price movement comes after ETH broke out of a falling wedge pattern before facing rejection at the $2,070 resistance level last week.
The selling pressure appears to be largely driven by short-term holders. These investors have shown increased risk-off sentiment amid market uncertainty about President Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2. This is when new reciprocal tariffs and increased duties on US trading partners are set to begin.
Short-term holders, particularly those who last moved their coins between three to six months ago, accelerated their distribution throughout March. The Dormant Circulation metric has shown consistent spikes, indicating increased selling activity from this group.
Investor Behavior
The Network Realized Profit/Loss metric reveals that recent sellers realized nearly $400 million in losses on Monday alone. Similar spikes in realized losses have been visible throughout March, suggesting ongoing capitulation from short-term holders.
Historically, prices tend to find a bottom after short-term holder selling pressure has been exhausted. However, a further breakdown could occur if long-term holders join the selling trend.
Investor behavior shows diverging sentiment among different groups. Investors holding between 1K-10K ETH have reduced their collective balance by 160K ETH over the past two weeks. This distribution comes after this class of investors had consistently increased their holdings since January.
In contrast, larger investors are showing more confidence. Whales holding between 10K-100K ETH expanded their holdings by 290K ETH over the weekend. This divergence indicates mixed sentiment across different investor classes.
Exchange and Staking Flows
Despite the short-term selling pressure, longer-term indicators remain positive. Exchange reserves are at low levels after investors withdrew 940K ETH during the month. Much of this appears to have moved into staking protocols.
Ethereum’s total value staked has increased by approximately 530K ETH in just the past three weeks. This movement from exchanges to staking protocols signals a preference for long-term holding despite the recent price decline.
This trend suggests that while short-term sentiment may be cautious, many investors maintain a bullish long-term outlook. The willingness to lock up funds in staking protocols indicates confidence in Ethereum’s future performance.
Technical Outlook
Ethereum saw $63.18 million in futures liquidations in a 24-hour period, with $37.33 million in long positions and $25.85 million in short positions being liquidated. These liquidations reflect the market’s volatility and uncertainty.
From a technical perspective, ETH’s current position above the $1,800 support level maintains the possibility of a bullish outlook. However, for this positive sentiment to be confirmed, buyers must hold this support level.
A breakout above $2,070 and the key descending trendline resistance extending from December 16 would validate a bullish trend. This resistance is strengthened by the 50-day Simple Moving Average, making it a major hurdle for upward movement.
On the downside, a sustained decline below $1,800 could validate a bearish continuation pattern. In such a scenario, ETH might find its next support at the $1,500 level.
Long-Term Potential
Looking beyond the immediate price action, some analysts see much higher potential for Ethereum. TradingView analyst Sohaibfx has identified an Ascending Triangle formation that has been active since late 2024, with strong resistance at the $4,000 level.
According to this analysis, if Ethereum can break above this resistance, it could confirm a strongly bullish trend. The measured move of this Ascending Triangle suggests a potential 333% surge to $7,800.
This target is calculated by determining the height of the triangle—the difference between its base at $2,000 and resistance at $4,000—and adding it to the breakout point. Based on past price behavior and buying momentum, the target extends beyond the standard projection to $7,800.
The analyst has identified $4,000 and $3,000 as key support levels that should act as safety nets after reaching higher targets. These levels represent areas where buyers are likely to prevent further declines following major upward movements.
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