TLDR
- Ethereum (ETH) has fallen sharply, currently trading around $1,570 after dropping to $1,471 earlier this week
- ETH price has declined about 65% over the past three months, following a pattern similar to 2018 and 2022 market cycles
- Onchain indicators suggest $1,000 could be the final bottom price target for ETH
- Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has entered the “capitulation” zone, where most investors are holding at a loss
- ETH has dropped below its Realized Price level, which historically has signaled potential market bottoms and preceded long-term recoveries
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, continues to face significant downward pressure after months of decline. The native token of the Ethereum blockchain has seen its value drop approximately 65% over the past three months, leaving investors wondering if relief might be on the horizon.
ETH currently trades around $1,570, recovering slightly from a recent low of $1,471. Despite this modest rebound, onchain data and technical indicators suggest further decline may be possible before a true market bottom is established.
The current price action mirrors patterns seen in previous market cycles. In both 2018 and 2022, Ethereum experienced steep rallies followed by sharp breakdowns and extended bear markets.
Analysts have noted these cycles share key characteristics. Higher price peaks are typically accompanied by lower relative strength index (RSI) readings, creating a bearish divergence that signals weakening momentum.
Falling #Ethereum Could Be the Canary In the Coal Mine – Ether may be on the way to revisiting its next round-number support level at $1,000, with implications for risk assets. Full report on Bloomberg here: https://t.co/vsuw0mMLAA {BI COMD}#commodities #gold #bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/61fhprgKPn
— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) April 6, 2025
Historical Patterns Suggest Lower Prices Ahead
In December 2024, Ethereum formed a higher price high near $4,095 while the RSI formed a lower high. This divergence marked the beginning of the current correction, following the pattern observed in previous market tops.
ETH has already closed below the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level around $1,550. Meanwhile, its weekly RSI remains above the oversold threshold of 30, suggesting there may be room for further price decline.
Based on these fractal patterns, some analysts project Ethereum could drop to between $990 and $1,240. This price range aligns with the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement area that has historically provided support.
Technical traders are closely watching these levels as potential accumulation zones if prices continue to fall in the coming weeks.
Onchain Metrics Enter Capitulation Territory
Onchain data provides additional insights into Ethereum’s market position. Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has entered what analysts call the “capitulation” zone.
This metric indicates that most investors are currently holding ETH at a loss. In previous market cycles, similar moves into the capitulation zone occurred close to major market bottoms.
In March 2020, the NUPL turned negative just before ETH rebounded sharply following the COVID-19 market crash. A similar pattern emerged in June 2022, when the metric fell into capitulation territory shortly before Ethereum established a bear market low of around $880.
The current NUPL reading echoes these prior bottoming phases, coinciding with key Fibonacci support levels near $1,000.
Another important indicator is Ethereum’s Realized Price, which recalculates the network’s market value based on the last price each ETH coin moved. This provides insight into the average acquisition cost across the blockchain.
Ethereum Price Has Dropped Below Its Realized Price
“Past data shows that whenever ETH dips below its realized price, it often coincides with long-term bottom zones.” – By @theKriptolik pic.twitter.com/cVRgufkqlc
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 8, 2025
Ethereum has recently dipped below its Realized Price level. When ETH trades below this metric, it often reflects bearish sentiment and increased selling pressure as holders find themselves underwater.
What This Means For Investors
According to onchain analyst theKriptolik, a drop below Realized Price tends to coincide with an increase in loss-driven selling as investors react to negative returns.
Such events are often associated with the capitulation phase, where market confidence erodes and widespread selling occurs.
However, historical data shows that ETH falling below this metric has frequently aligned with market bottoms and preceded subsequent long-term recoveries.
Past cycles demonstrate that whenever ETH dips below its realized price, these periods have consistently been followed by strong recoveries. This makes them potential strategic accumulation points for long-term investors.
While the Realized Price breach signals short-term volatility, it may also represent a potential accumulation zone for those with longer time horizons.
Current market conditions suggest Ethereum could be in the final leg of its decline. Technical patterns and onchain metrics are approaching levels that have historically signaled market bottoms.
Ethereum’s current price of $1,570 represents a recovery of about 4.8% over the past 24 hours, showing some signs of buying interest at current levels.
However, traders remain cautious as broader market sentiment continues to weigh on cryptocurrency prices across the board.
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