Dogecoin (DOGE) Price: Is This Oversold Dip a Buying Opportunity?

TLDR

Table of Contents

DOGE is currently trading at approximately $0.165, down 3.6% in the past 24 hours
RSI has dropped below 10 on the 4-hour chart, indicating extremely oversold conditions
Price is holding above a key long-term ascending channel support that dates back to 2015
Whale wallets continue to accumulate DOGE despite price consolidation
Analysts suggest a 60-70% probability of a bounce to the $0.172-$0.175 range

Dogecoin, the popular meme cryptocurrency, is showing signs of being oversold after weeks of downward pressure. The digital asset has lost most of its price gains from late 2024 and broken below several support levels.

Technical indicators suggest DOGE may be preparing for a rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached extremely low levels, particularly on the 4-hour chart where it has fallen below 10.

For context, the RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements. Readings below 30 typically indicate oversold conditions that might lead to a price bounce.

On the 1-hour timeframe, DOGE’s RSI sits between 25 and 27. This also signals strong oversold conditions. The daily RSI hovers around 32-33, just above the oversold threshold but trending downward.

These readings collectively suggest that while bearish pressure remains, the setup increasingly favors a potential rebound. One analyst gives a 60-70% probability of a bounce toward the $0.172-$0.175 range.

However, the same analysis also points to a 30-40% chance that DOGE could drop further. If selling continues, Dogecoin might extend its decline throughout the week before attempting recovery.

Long-Term Support Remains Intact

From a macro perspective, Dogecoin is holding above the lower boundary of its long-term ascending channel. This trendline has served as foundational support since 2015.

#Dogecoin $DOGE continues to hold above the lower boundary of this channel. A spike in demand here could fuel a rally toward the mid or upper range!
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— Ali (@ali_charts) March 30, 2025

The recent pullback brought DOGE to $0.17, just above the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $0.18395. This key retracement area often precedes a rebound if buying demand picks up.

If historical patterns repeat, this could mark the beginning of a move back toward the mid-range of the channel. Targets in this scenario include $0.56 or even higher toward $2.73, the 1.272 Fibonacci extension.

However, this would require broader market momentum to return. In the near term, DOGE remains below both the 50 and 200-period moving averages on the 12-hour chart.

Whale Accumulation Signals Confidence

On-chain data reveals interesting patterns among Dogecoin holders. The Accumulation/Distribution Line was 20.28 billion DOGE at press time, indicating that long-term holders continue to accumulate despite price consolidation.

This divergence between price and accumulation often precedes rallies. It suggests buyers are absorbing supply during dips, potentially preparing for future upside.

Cohort distribution data highlights demand from large wallets. Addresses holding between 10 million to 100 million DOGE and those holding 100 million to 1 billion DOGE have shown steady accumulation throughout March.

Meanwhile, mid-sized holders with 1 million to 10 million DOGE slightly reduced their positions. This pattern suggests larger players are positioning for potential upside.

These whale wallets may be expecting a broader market recovery to lift memecoins like Dogecoin. Their continued accumulation signals confidence despite current price weakness.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.1649. This represents a 3.6% decline in the past 24 hours.

Short-term price action now depends on market reaction at the current $0.165 level. A move toward $0.172 or higher could unfold quickly if buyers step in.

For a confirmed reversal, DOGE would need to reclaim the $0.18 level. This would need to be supported by increasing volume and continued accumulation.

If momentum builds after such a breakout, mid-range targets of $0.27 to $0.56 would come into play. However, the 50-period simple moving average at $0.176 currently acts as resistance.

Dogecoin stands at a key inflection point with mixed signals. While technical indicators show oversold conditions that favor a bounce, continued selling pressure could push prices lower before any recovery begins.

With price holding above its decade-long ascending channel and large wallets quietly accumulating, the risk-to-reward ratio may favor bulls. However, caution remains warranted in the near term.

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