Dogecoin (DOGE) Price: Can ETF Approvals Save DOGE from Whale Selloff?

TLDR

Table of Contents

21Shares has joined Bitwise and Grayscale in filing for a U.S. spot Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF
Approval odds for a DOGE ETF in 2025 are currently around 64% according to Polymarket
Dogecoin price has dropped to $0.13-0.15, erasing previous gains
Whales have dumped approximately 1.32 billion DOGE worth $190 million in recent days
Miners have been accumulating DOGE since March, increasing holdings from 831 million to 907 million tokens

Dogecoin has fallen to its lowest price since October 2024, hitting $0.13 on April 7 amid a broader cryptocurrency market decline. The popular memecoin faces significant selling pressure as whale investors offloaded approximately 1.32 billion DOGE tokens worth $190 million over a two-day period.

This price drop comes as 21Shares submitted a filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on April 9, seeking approval to launch a Dogecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). This move positions 21Shares alongside Grayscale and Bitwise, who filed similar applications in Q1 2025, intensifying the race for the first U.S. spot memecoin ETF.

The memecoin has erased all gains made during the U.S. election period and has returned to November price levels of around $0.15. This price level previously acted as support in March, but it remains uncertain whether it will continue to hold throughout Q2.

ETF Approval Prospects

Current market sentiment suggests moderately positive odds for a DOGE ETF approval. Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas estimated a 75% chance of approval back in February.

Prediction platform Polymarket currently shows bettors pricing a 64% approval chance for a DOGE ETF in 2025. This relatively high probability reflects growing confidence in regulatory acceptance of cryptocurrency investment vehicles.

The potential approval of a spot Dogecoin ETF could be a market catalyst. If approved, such an ETF might stimulate institutional demand and provide a path to price recovery for the memecoin.

21Shares has already launched a Dogecoin Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) on the SIX Swiss Exchange under the trading symbol DOGE on April 9. This regulated product gives both institutional and retail investors access to Dogecoin through a physically backed structure.

Whale Activity and Market Concerns

Whale behavior is having a substantial impact on Dogecoin’s price trajectory. According to analyst Ali Martinez, Dogecoin whales (those owning one million or more DOGE) hold approximately 70.5 billion tokens, representing about 47% of the entire circulating supply of the memecoin.

This concentrated ownership gives whales significant influence over price patterns. Their recent selling trend has raised concerns about further price declines as selling pressure continues to outpace market demand.

The largest wallet holders with over 1 billion DOGE have been dumping their tokens since December and haven’t changed this strategy as of this writing. Since DOGE’s price is particularly sensitive to this wallet cohort, their continued selling could limit the memecoin’s recovery prospects.

Miner Behavior Shows Contrasting Signals

Not all market participants share the bearish sentiment. Miners have been accumulating DOGE since March, increasing their holdings from 831 million to 907 million tokens. This marks a reversal from their previous selling behavior between December and February.

This accumulation by miners could suggest confidence in future price appreciation. However, it contrasts sharply with the behavior of the largest wallet holders who continue to reduce their positions.

Social volumes and active user metrics remain muted, indicating limited retail interest in the memecoin during the Q1 market sell-off. This weak sentiment is also reflected among the largest wallet holders who have been consistently reducing their positions since December.

If the current support level at $0.15 fails to hold, DOGE could potentially drop further to $0.10 or even $0.06. For bulls to regain control of the market, they would need to push the price above the 200 Daily Moving Average, which sits above $0.25.

The ongoing whale sell-off activity could trigger panic among retail investors, potentially leading to additional liquidations and strengthening bearish market trends in the short term.

Despite the current bearish trend, the approval of a spot Dogecoin ETF could change market dynamics by attracting institutional investors. The broader cryptocurrency market’s performance will also impact DOGE’s value moving forward.

Market participants will be closely monitoring whale behavior and price movement patterns to determine Dogecoin’s upcoming trajectory. The coming weeks will reveal whether the current bearish market is temporary or likely to extend beyond current expectations.

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