TLDR:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in September, annual inflation rate at 2.4%
- Core inflation (excluding food and energy) increased 0.3% monthly, 3.3% annually
- Jobless claims jumped unexpectedly to 258,000, highest since August 2023
- Food prices rose 0.4%, shelter costs up 0.2%, energy prices fell 1.9%
- Egg prices surged 8.4% due to bird flu, up 39.6% year-over-year
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows that inflation in the United States held relatively steady in September, with prices rising 0.2% for the month and 2.4% over the past year.
This marks a slight increase from economists’ expectations but continues the overall trend of moderating inflation seen in recent months.
According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% for the month and 3.3% annually. Both the headline and core inflation figures came in 0.1 percentage points above forecasts.
A significant contributor to September’s inflation was a 0.4% jump in food prices. Notably, egg prices spiked 8.4% due to an outbreak of bird flu, pushing their year-over-year increase to 39.6%. Shelter costs, which make up a large portion of the CPI, rose by 0.2% for the month.
On the other hand, energy prices fell by 1.9%, helping to offset some of the increases in other categories. Used vehicle costs increased by 0.3%, while new vehicle prices rose 0.2%. Medical care services saw a 0.7% uptick, and apparel prices surged by 1.1%.
The inflation report comes as the Federal Reserve considers its next steps in monetary policy. While the central bank has been lowering interest rates, the persistence of inflation above its 2% target may influence future decisions.
In a separate report, initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 258,000 for the week ending October 5, marking the highest level since August 2023. This increase of 33,000 from the previous week was largely attributed to the impact of Hurricane Helene and a strike by Boeing workers.
The Labor Department noted that Florida and North Carolina, two states heavily affected by the hurricane, reported a combined increase of 12,376 claims. Michigan, where the Boeing strike is occurring, saw the largest gain with 9,490 new claims.
Despite the higher-than-expected inflation and jobless claims figures, some economists remain optimistic about the overall trend. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized the importance of looking at the long-term picture rather than focusing on month-to-month fluctuations.
The shelter category, which has been a persistent driver of inflation, showed signs of easing. The annual increase in shelter costs slowed to 4.9%, potentially indicating a broader cooling of price pressures in the coming months.
However, risks to the inflation outlook remain. Factors such as geopolitical events, natural disasters, and potential policy changes could impact prices in the future. Energy prices, in particular, are seen as a key risk to the current disinflationary trend.
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