TLDR
- Prediction markets now show just 38% probability for CLARITY Act passage in 2026, representing a 23-point decline
- Senator Bernie Moreno projects markup completion by May’s conclusion
- Galaxy Digital estimates 50% likelihood of legislative approval this year
- Banking industry requests additional 60-day period for stablecoin regulation feedback
- TD Cowen identifies five additional roadblocks separate from the yield dispute
The United States Senate finds itself mired in procedural gridlock over the CLARITY Act, landmark cryptocurrency legislation that secured House approval in July 2025. Forward momentum has ground to a halt amid escalating tensions between traditional banking institutions and digital asset advocates, with the legislative calendar rapidly narrowing.
During an April 22 address to a Washington, D.C. audience, Senator Bernie Moreno projected that markup proceedings would conclude “by the end of May.” He dismissed banking sector concerns about stablecoin interest payments as “a lot of noise in the system” that is “completely fake.”
Senator Thom Tillis has advised Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott to calendar the markup session for May, acknowledging that additional time is necessary for negotiators to bridge differences between financial institutions and cryptocurrency proponents regarding stablecoin yield provisions.
Cryptocurrency advocates are mounting resistance. Senator Cynthia Lummis alongside industry organization The Digital Chamber have pressed the Senate Banking Committee to expedite markup scheduling.
On Tuesday, the American Bankers Association submitted correspondence to multiple federal agencies—the Treasury Department, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, and Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. The letter requested a 60-day extension for submitting feedback on regulations connected to the GENIUS Act stablecoin legislation, which received presidential signature in July 2025.
The banking association argued that guidance from various agencies is fundamentally dependent on the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s finalized rulemaking, rendering substantive commentary premature until those regulations are complete.
Betting markets have responded to the legislative setbacks. Polymarket currently indicates a 38% probability for CLARITY Act passage in 2026, declining 23 percentage points. Kalshi platforms show 14% odds for pre-July passage and 39% for approval before August.
The likelihood of President Trump affixing his signature before 2027 has modestly increased to 58%, up from 53% recorded earlier in the week.
What Galaxy Digital Is Saying
Digital asset firm Galaxy Digital assessed the legislation’s prospects at approximately even odds for this year. Research Director Alex Thorn identified numerous outstanding matters requiring resolution, encompassing stablecoin yield provisions, decentralized finance frameworks, ethics stipulations, and developer liability shields.
The legislation must navigate Senate Banking Committee approval, secure 60 votes on the Senate floor, and subsequently undergo reconciliation with Agriculture Committee and House versions.
The Senate Calendar Problem
Galaxy Digital emphasized that the Senate’s operational schedule preceding the August recess presents significant constraints. Senators maintain session throughout April, reconvene May 11 through May 22, and subsequently have only three-week periods in both June and July before a five-week August adjournment.
Thorn cautioned that markup delays extending beyond mid-May would substantially diminish the probability of achieving passage this year.
TD Cowen enumerated five additional complications: understaffing at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, unresolved prediction market regulations, examination of Trump-affiliated World Liberty Financial, intelligence reports suggesting Iranian cryptocurrency utilization for Strait of Hormuz passage fees raising money laundering concerns, and the Credit Card Competition Act.
Senator Lummis has cautioned that legislative failure this year could postpone reconsideration until 2030.
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