TLDR
- CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju predicts 6-12 months of bearish or sideways Bitcoin price action
- Declining market liquidity and stalled realized cap indicate no fresh capital inflows
- Key valuation metrics like MVRV Ratio Z-score show bearish signals
- Not all analysts agree – some point to global money supply reaching new highs as potential catalyst for growth
- Bitcoin is down approximately 15% over the past month
CryptoQuant’s founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has declared that Bitcoin’s bull market is over. In a recent post on X, Ju stated he expects 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
The prediction represents a change from his earlier stance. Just two weeks ago, on March 4, Ju had said the Bitcoin bull cycle would remain slow but was “still intact,” citing neutral readings on key indicators at that time.
Ju’s current bearish outlook is based on several factors. He points to declining liquidity in the market as a primary concern. “New liquidity is needed. The on-chain realized cap has stalled, signaling no fresh capital inflows,” Ju explained in a Telegram note.
#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action. pic.twitter.com/f80bnNhjy4
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 17, 2025
He also noted that BlackRock’s IBIT has seen three straight weeks of outflows. This is seen as a troubling sign for market strength and momentum. Even with trading volume near the $100K mark, Bitcoin’s price barely moved, according to Ju.
The CryptoQuant report suggests Bitcoin could return to the $63K price level. The report cites bearish signals from key valuation metrics like the MVRV Ratio Z-score, which compares bitcoin’s market value to its realized value to identify market conditions.
The MVRV Z-score dropping below its 365-day moving average is an important technical signal. Historically, this pattern has aligned with deeper price corrections or the beginning of bear markets. This technical factor adds weight to the bearish case.
ETFs are adding to sell pressure
CryptoQuant analysts have identified $75K-$78K as a critical support level for Bitcoin. They note that weakening demand is evident in slowing whale accumulation patterns. US-based spot ETFs are showing net selling, which continues to add downward pressure on prices.
These factors increase the risk of a deeper price correction, according to the CryptoQuant analysis. The firm’s metrics all point toward challenging market conditions ahead for Bitcoin investors.
However, not all analysts share this pessimistic view. Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph “there is no reason to panic.” He explained that while investors are worried about US President Trump’s tariffs, economic indicators remain positive.
Some analysts point to the global M2 money supply reaching new highs. Crypto analyst Seth believes this could trigger another Bitcoin rally. “We are about to see Bitcoin rally again,” he stated in a recent X post.
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
In Aug 2024 I signalled the next leg up after Global Money Supply trending up making new ATH.I'm saying Global Money supply just made another new ATH. We are about to see #Bitcoin rally again.
This time is not different.
Not financial advice.
Always DYOR! https://t.co/uTM0KZaTju pic.twitter.com/a07babxVzZ— Seth (@seth_fin) March 17, 2025
CoinRoutes CEO Dave Weisberger has a similar view. He suggested that if historical trends continue, Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs by late April. “Expect Bitcoin to hit a new ATH within a month if its BETA correlation to money supply holds,” Weisberger wrote.
Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten also remains optimistic. He recently told Cointelegraph there’s “more than a 50% chance we will see all-time highs before the end of June this year.” Bitcoin’s current all-time high of $109,000 was reached on January 20.
Despite these optimistic viewpoints, Bitcoin’s recent performance has been weak. The cryptocurrency is trading around $83,030, down approximately 15% over the past month according to market data. This decline has erased any gains made following the US presidential election.
Polymarket betting data gives insight into short-term price expectations. Bettors are giving a 51% chance that Bitcoin ends the week between $81K-$87K. They assign a 31% chance it will hit $75K by the end of March.
Weakness in US equities
LMAX Group’s Joel Kruger and Coinbase Institutional’s David Duong have warned about additional risk factors. They note that weakness in US equities amid economic uncertainty could further pressure crypto markets. Global tensions and the possibility of stagflation add to the market concerns.
The contrasting viewpoints highlight the divided sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. While on-chain metrics point to challenging conditions ahead, other analysts see potential for renewed growth based on broader economic factors and historical patterns.
Bitcoin funding rates are currently hovering close to 0%. This indicates increasing uncertainty among traders about the market’s direction. The neutral funding rates reflect the mixed signals that analysts are interpreting differently.
Former Phunware CEO Alan Knitowski has a dramatically different view on Bitcoin’s proper valuation. Based on historical data, he believes Bitcoin’s current price is 67% lower than where it should be at this stage of the market cycle. According to his analysis, “the lower bound of the historical range should be around $250,000.”
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