BLS Delays September CPI to October 24

TLDR

Table of Contents

BLS delayed September CPI release to October 24 from October 15 due to ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
September inflation data will drop October 24, just five days before the October 29 FOMC meeting.
CME FedWatch shows 96.7% probability of 25 basis points rate cut at October FOMC meeting by the Fed.
Fed Governor Michael Barr warned Trump tariffs could create persistent inflation during policy adjustments.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has pushed back the September Consumer Price Index release to October 24. The agency originally scheduled the inflation data for October 15 but delayed publication due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.

The BLS announced this report will be the only macroeconomic data it releases during the shutdown period. Notably, the crypto market closely monitors this inflation data as it could shape the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision.

Government Shutdown Delays Key Economic Data

The BLS stated it will publish the September CPI on October 24 according to an official announcement from the agency. This delay affects multiple key reports, with U.S. jobs data also postponed amid the government shutdown. Congress failed to pass a funding bill, triggering the current shutdown that impacts various federal agencies.

The revised October 24 release date places the inflation data just five days before the October 29 FOMC meeting. This timing gives Federal Reserve officials limited time to analyze the CPI figures before making rate decisions. Meanwhile, the proximity of the data release to the meeting increases its potential influence on monetary policy outcomes.

Fed Officials Weigh Inflation Risks and Policy Adjustments

Fed Governor Michael Barr recently expressed concerns about the inflation outlook in his policy statements. He emphasized the need for caution when adjusting monetary policy moving forward. Barr specifically warned that Trump tariffs could create persistent inflation pressures across the economy.

However, recent FOMC minutes revealed most Federal Reserve officials currently favor additional rate cuts before year-end. The minutes showed officials now prioritize addressing the weakening labor market over managing inflation risks. This shift in focus marks a notable change from earlier policy deliberations.

Market Expectations Point to October Rate Cut

CME FedWatch data currently shows a 96.7% probability the Fed will implement a 25 basis points cut at the October FOMC meeting. This high likelihood makes a rate reduction nearly certain for the upcoming session. Notably, a lower-than-expected September inflation reading could increase chances of a larger cut.

Fed Governor Chris Waller took a different stance by cautioning against accelerating the pace or magnitude of rate reductions. Waller believes the current easing approach remains appropriate for economic conditions. He indicated support for 25 basis points cuts at both the October and December FOMC meetings.

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