TLDR
- Bitcoin price predictions vary based on 2024 election outcome: $90K (Trump) vs $50K (Harris)
- Bernstein maintains $200K target for end of 2025
- Trump leading in prediction markets at 57.9% vs Harris at 42.1%
- US Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over $20B since January
- Trump has launched his own DeFi project on Ethereum
Investment firm Bernstein has released new predictions about Bitcoin’s price movements tied to the upcoming U.S. presidential election results. The firm’s analysis suggests two distinct price paths depending on who wins the White House.
According to the latest report from Bernstein’s analyst team, including Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia, a Trump victory could push Bitcoin’s price to between $80,000 and $90,000 shortly after the election. In contrast, they predict a Harris win might lead to a price adjustment to around $50,000.
Bitcoin currently trades at $67,830, coming close to its March all-time high of $73,737. The cryptocurrency market has shown new patterns of stability in 2024, helped by the January launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.
The success of these ETFs has been notable, with over $20 billion in assets flowing into these investment vehicles since their introduction. This development has created new ways for traditional investors to gain exposure to cryptocurrency markets.
Donald Trump’s relationship with cryptocurrency has changed dramatically since his time as president. He now supports crypto technology and has launched World Liberty Financial, his own decentralized finance project on the Ethereum network.
Trump has also pushed for American leadership in Bitcoin mining, suggesting that all future Bitcoin mining should happen within U.S. borders.
Prediction markets have become active in forecasting the election’s impact on crypto prices. Polymarket, a decentralized predictions platform, shows Trump leading with 57.9% odds compared to Harris at 42.1%. The platform reports $3.1 billion in trading volume related to election outcomes.
The regulated prediction platform Kalshi shows a closer race, with Trump at 54% and Harris at 46%. National polling presents an even tighter contest, with Harris holding a 1% lead within the margin of error.
State-level predictions show various leads in key swing states. Trump currently leads in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada on prediction markets, while Harris maintains advantages in Wisconsin and Michigan. Pennsylvania’s odds have shifted, with Trump now showing a 14% lead after Harris briefly moved ahead.
Recent market corrections have occurred due to profit-taking and temporary decreases in spot Bitcoin ETF flows, according to BRN analyst Valentin Fournier. These short-term changes haven’t affected longer-term market outlook.
The election’s influence extends beyond Bitcoin to other parts of the cryptocurrency market. Some observers suggest a Harris victory might benefit Ethereum due to potential regulatory changes, though Bernstein’s analysts disagree with this view.
Bernstein’s team argues that supportive regulation helps the entire crypto ecosystem rather than creating winners and losers. They point out that blockchain platforms like Ethereum and Solana need clear stablecoin regulations and asset classification guidelines to grow.
Bitcoin mining remains an important focus, particularly given its connections to domestic production and energy use for AI computing. Analysis suggests the mining industry will continue growing regardless of election results, though pro-mining policies could attract more investors.
The cryptocurrency currently trades near $68,596, showing a 7% decrease from its recent high of $73,500 on October 29. Market participants continue watching election developments and their effects on crypto prices.
Despite short-term election-related price predictions, Bernstein maintains its long-term Bitcoin forecast of $200,000 by the end of 2025. The firm bases this target on factors beyond political influence, including U.S. fiscal policy and monetary expansion.
Trading volumes across various platforms indicate high market interest in election-related cryptocurrency movements. Both retail and institutional investors appear to be positioning themselves for potential post-election price changes.
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