Bitcoin Fear Index Falls Below 5, Suggesting Possible Tactical Price Rebound

TLDR

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Bitcoin’s Greed & Fear Index from 10x Research fell below 5 points for the first time in months.
The 21-day average of the sentiment index dropped to 10%, a level often tied to tactical lows.
Bitcoin traded near $84,800 after recovering from a recent low of $80,880 on Friday.
BTC remains down 10% this week and 23% this month despite the recent bounce.

Bitcoin market sentiment has plunged to one of its lowest levels in years, as measured by the 10x Research “Greed & Fear” Index, which dropped below 5 points. The 21-day average of the index has also hit 10%, a level that has historically marked tactical lows. While the broader trend remains bearish, this extreme pessimism could set the stage for a short-term rebound in Bitcoin prices.

Sentiment Falls to Record Lows According to 10x Research

Bitcoin’s market sentiment has reached levels of extreme pessimism, as measured by 10x Research’s proprietary “Greed & Fear” Index. This index, which evaluates the emotional state of market participants, has dropped to below 5 points—its lowest reading in months. Any reading under 10% is considered to represent extreme fear.

In addition, the 21-day simple moving average of this index now stands at 10%. Historical data suggests that this level has frequently aligned with tactical market bottoms, where prices tend to bounce in the short term. The last time this occurred, Bitcoin rebounded by 10% shortly after.

Analyst Notes Possibility of Short-Term Rebound

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, acknowledged the current extreme sentiment but warned it may not indicate the end of the broader price correction. In a comment to MoneyCheck, he said, “Our own 10x Greed & Fear Index has been sitting near its lowest possible reading, and the slower-moving average has now reached the 10% zone, a level that often marks a tactical low.”

He added that while prices can still fall further, sentiment at such low levels often leads to a temporary reversal. “Prices can still fall further, as we saw in March when the indicator bottomed before bitcoin continued to slide into April. Yet, bitcoin still staged a 10% rebound immediately after that initial sentiment low,” Thielen stated.

Bitcoin Price Sees Partial Recovery from Weekly Low

As of the latest data, Bitcoin was trading near $84,800 after reaching a recent low of $80,880 on Friday. Despite the modest rebound, Bitcoin remains down 10% over the past week and has lost 23% over the past month.

This decline has been driven by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, profit-taking, and weakening momentum in crypto-related investment flows. However, the shift in sentiment may offer temporary relief to markets, especially if traders react to the contrarian signal the Fear Index is sending.

Historical Context Supports Potential Bounce

Historically, when the Greed & Fear Index has fallen to such low levels, Bitcoin has often seen a bounce within days. While not always a reliable predictor of trend reversals, the 21-day average reaching 10% has coincided with short-term price recoveries in the past.

Market participants may look at these sentiment indicators for guidance amid heightened volatility. Still, analysts caution that sentiment alone does not ensure a recovery, as price movements also depend on liquidity, demand, and broader risk appetite in financial markets.