TLDR
- March PCE inflation surged to 3.5% year-over-year, marking the highest level since August 2023
- BTC declined to approximately $76,000 in response to elevated inflation figures
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $490 million in combined outflows across three trading sessions
- Prediction markets now estimate a 58% probability of no Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2026
- Technical analyst Ted Pillows identified a potential short-term rebound after BTC defended the $75,000 threshold
Fresh inflation figures from the United States have sent Bitcoin tumbling, as the Personal Consumption Expenditures index reached levels not seen in close to three years.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the March PCE inflation gauge increased by 3.5% on an annual basis and jumped 0.7% from the previous month. The core PCE metric registered 3.2% year-over-year, representing its most elevated reading since November 2023.
Following the data release, Bitcoin tumbled toward the $76,000 mark. Current TradingView figures show BTC changing hands near $76,400 at press time.
During its most recent policy meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at current levels, citing heightened uncertainty stemming from escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. The stronger-than-expected PCE data reinforces the argument for policymakers to keep rates unchanged for a third straight session.
According to Polymarket betting data, the likelihood of zero interest rate cuts throughout 2026 has climbed to 58%, representing a dramatic increase from the 39% probability recorded just 48 hours prior. This evolving outlook is creating headwinds for risk-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin.
Cryptocurrency analyst Ted Pillows observed on X that Bitcoin briefly tested the $75,000 support zone before experiencing upward momentum. He suggested that buyers are actively protecting this price level and indicated that another near-term upward move might be developing. Market participants are closely monitoring the $75,000 region as a critical support benchmark.
ETF Outflows Add to Pressure
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds listed in the United States witnessed $490 million in combined net withdrawals spanning Monday through Wednesday. This development marked a reversal of the accumulation pattern observed during the preceding two-week period and signals diminished short-term institutional appetite.
Notwithstanding the recent withdrawal activity, Bitcoin ETF products have attracted $3.3 billion in net capital since the beginning of March, indicating that the broader trend continues to skew positive.
Bitcoin has declined 14% since the start of the year, even as the S&P 500 index notched a fresh record high. Disappointing technology sector earnings contributed to cautious market sentiment, with Meta shares plunging 9% and Microsoft stock retreating 4% following their quarterly reports.
Oil Prices Weigh on Sentiment
Brent crude oil climbed above $120 per barrel and subsequently touched $126, propelled by intensifying U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions. Elevated oil prices have driven five-year Treasury yields upward to 4.02%, compared to 3.51% recorded two months ago, prompting traders to adopt risk-averse positioning.
Strategy, under the leadership of Michael Saylor, acquired 56,235 BTC during April’s first four weeks at an average purchase price of $75,537. Market observers are monitoring whether this accumulation velocity continues.
First-quarter U.S. GDP expanded at a 2% annualized pace, falling marginally short of the 2.3% consensus forecast from economists. Additionally, President Trump declined Iran’s most recent proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining elevated geopolitical uncertainty.
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