TLDR
- Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $109,400 on May 21, 2025
- The surge came 9 days after a 90-day US-China trade agreement was announced
- Bitcoin has risen more than 26% in the past month
- Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were viewed as the biggest macroeconomic threat to markets in 2025
- Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $114,000-$132,000 by the end of 2025
Bitcoin has climbed to a historic new all-time high of $109,400 on May 21, 2025, marking a major milestone for the cryptocurrency. This surge represents a 26% increase over the past month, according to data from TradingView.
The record-breaking price comes just nine days after the White House announced a temporary trade agreement between the United States and China on May 12.
This 90-day agreement reduced import tariffs to 10%, providing relief to global markets that had been under pressure from trade tensions.
Bitcoin’s previous struggles were directly tied to economic uncertainty. The cryptocurrency briefly fell to a year-to-date low of $74,434 on April 7.
This drop happened just five days after President Donald Trump announced reciprocal import tariffs on April 2.
Trump’s tariff announcement sent shockwaves through global markets. The S&P 500 lost more than $5 trillion in value, its largest drop to date.
Geopolitical Factors Influencing Crypto Markets
Bitcoin’s recovery began on April 9 after what Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Consultancy, described as the “climax of uncertainty” for market participants.
According to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen, the 90-day tariff suspension removed the risk of “sudden re-escalation.”
This change had a major impact on risk appetite among both traditional and cryptocurrency investors.
Bitcoin entered May with what Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex exchange, called a “near-flawless setup.”
This favorable environment was created by a rare alignment of several positive factors: geopolitical de-escalation, improving regulatory outlook, and helpful macroeconomic conditions.
The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks have also played a role in reducing market volatility. On May 19, Trump posted on X about his two-hour call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 19, 2025
He stated that Russia and Ukraine “will immediately start negotiations towards a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War.”
Rather than causing investors to move away from Bitcoin, this easing of tensions has actually led to more investment in the cryptocurrency.
Kooner explained that capital is rotating into Bitcoin and high-beta tech as the need for geopolitical hedging fades, while liquidity remains abundant.
This shift reflects a “maturing narrative” where Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a “high-conviction risk asset in periods of macro stability” rather than just a hedge against fear.
For Bitcoin to continue its upward trajectory to a potential $114,000 to $120,000, Kooner said funding rates need to remain neutral and open interest stable.
Some analysts have even more optimistic forecasts. Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, predicts Bitcoin could rise above $132,000 before the end of 2025.
This prediction is based on Bitcoin’s close correlation with the global money supply. According to Coutts, the increasing money supply may push Bitcoin’s price higher as investor demand is driven by growing fiat money debasement.
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