TLDR
- Bitcoin price recovering from $81,200 zone but facing resistance at $83,500
- Technical indicators show bearish trend line on hourly chart
- DXY (US Dollar Index) weakness could potentially trigger Bitcoin’s bull run
- Key support levels at $82,200, $81,200, and $80,500
- Trader CarpeNoctom suggests BTC could “explode higher” if DXY breaks below 100
Bitcoin has entered a period of uncertainty as it attempts to recover from recent losses while facing significant resistance. The leading cryptocurrency is struggling to gain momentum above key price levels, leaving investors and traders watching closely for signs of the next major move.
Bitcoin price started a recovery wave from the $81,200 zone and moved above the $82,200 resistance zone. The bulls pushed the price past the $82,500 and $83,000 resistance levels.
The price even tested the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent decline from the $89,042 swing high to the $81,177 low. However, BTC is having trouble continuing higher.
Currently, Bitcoin price is trading below $83,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. The immediate resistance is near $83,200, with the first key resistance at $83,500.
Technical analysis shows a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $83,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If Bitcoin fails to break above this level, it could start another decline.
Dollar Weakness and Bitcoin’s Potential
The correlation between Bitcoin and macroeconomic factors continues to grow stronger. Crypto trader CarpeNoctom has outlined how the US Dollar Index (DXY) could help shape Bitcoin’s price action moving forward.
$BTC needs to uncorrelate from US tech and we gucci pic.twitter.com/5x8F1w2ucO
— #333kByJuly2025 (@CarpeNoctom) April 3, 2025
The DXY has dropped 8% in the past 80 days, falling from 110.176 to 101.267. During this same period, Bitcoin price has decreased by 13%.
Typically, a weakening US dollar promotes risk-on behavior in markets. CarpeNoctom suggests that a breakdown of the DXY below 100 could spark a bull run for Bitcoin price.
Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX exchange, added weight to this bullish Bitcoin prediction. He noted that BTC should eventually decorrelate from US tech stocks.
Hayes stated that he “loved tariffs” because “global imbalances will be corrected, and the pain papered over with printed money, which is good for $BTC.”
Key Levels to Watch
For traders looking to navigate the current market conditions, several key price levels demand attention. According to analyst TraderMagus, the two critical Bitcoin price levels to watch are $80,000 and $90,000.
The trader explains that a risk-on scenario would emerge if BTC drops below $80,000 or if the price climbs to $90,000 and shows strength above that level.
On the upside, if Bitcoin manages to rise above $83,500, the next key resistance could be $84,500. A close above this level might send the price higher toward the $85,500 resistance level.
Further gains could push Bitcoin toward $86,000 or the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent decline from the $89,042 swing high to the $81,177 low.
If Bitcoin fails to break above $83,500, immediate support is near $82,200, with major support at $81,200. Further losses could send the price toward $80,500 or even $80,000 in the near term.
The main support sits at $78,800, which would likely attract strong buying interest if reached.
TraderMagus suggests that intraday plays are the way to go in the current environment, cautioning investors against getting their capital “chopped up” in the volatility.
The trader remains optimistic about the long term, stating, “I think it’s a massive buy opportunity once the dust settles on all this for equities & btc.”
The crypto market outlook remains uncertain in the short term. A sweep of $80,000 followed by recovery could potentially send Bitcoin to $90,000, while a rejection at $90,000 could push BTC back into consolidation.
The hourly MACD indicator is losing pace in the bearish zone, while the hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) for BTC/USD is currently below the 50 level, suggesting more downside pressure could be ahead.
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