Key Takeaways
- Cantor Fitzgerald believes Bitcoin has entered the concluding phase of its present bear market
- Analysis of past cycles points to a possible bottom occurring near the end of October 2026
- BTC has declined approximately 51% from its peak in late 2025, currently hovering near $59,500
- Cantor identified Hyperliquid, Ethereum, and Bitcoin as preferred investments for lasting value
- The financial institution launched coverage of two digital asset treasury firms with overweight recommendations
Investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald believes Bitcoin could reach its cyclical trough within the coming months. In a research note released Tuesday, the firm’s research team headed by Gareth Gacetta indicated that cryptocurrency markets are transitioning into the concluding phase of the ongoing bearish period.
By June 10, Bitcoin had spent 252 days below its 2025 all-time high, experiencing a roughly 51% decline. Analysis of the three prior market cycles shows Bitcoin typically reaches its nadir approximately 384 days following a peak. Applying this pattern to the current situation suggests a potential bottom around late October 2026.
Cantor emphasized that this framework should not be viewed as a definitive timing mechanism. Factors including macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and international tensions could alter the trajectory. However, the firm observed that cryptocurrency’s self-reinforcing characteristics mean historical patterns often repeat themselves.
Bitcoin was changing hands near $59,500 as of press time.
The wider digital asset ecosystem has faced headwinds in recent months. A pronounced June correction, fueled by continuous ETF redemptions, elevated borrowing costs, and diminished risk tolerance, sent Bitcoin plummeting more than 50% beneath its late-2025 zenith.
Ether alongside most prominent alternative cryptocurrencies have lagged Bitcoin throughout this downturn. Select segments, particularly decentralized finance and asset tokenization, have demonstrated comparative strength.
Cantor’s Value Investment Thesis
As markets approach a potential inflection point, Cantor advised investors to pivot away from speculative trading toward blockchain networks demonstrating sustainable value creation.
The firm contended that transaction volume alone fails to generate token appreciation. Future leaders must transform network activity into consistent cash generation or enduring monetary demand.
Cantor highlighted Hyperliquid as the most transparent example of revenue-generating tokenomics, pointing to its buyback and burn mechanism. Bitcoin was characterized as the foundational monetary asset. Ethereum was positioned as the leading collateral infrastructure for decentralized finance.
Solana, Sui, XRP, and Zcash each possess unique competitive advantages, according to Cantor, though they must still demonstrate capability to convert ecosystem expansion into sustained token value.
The bank additionally spotlighted digital asset treasury corporations as an underappreciated investment opportunity. It suggested the most robust companies are evolving beyond simple cryptocurrency accumulation toward active strategies that produce returns and develop infrastructure.
Cantor began covering Forward Industries and Cypherpunk Technologies with overweight recommendations. Target prices were established at $7.90 and $0.90, respectively.
Broader Market Landscape
According to CoinShares data, BTC-focused investment vehicles have led net capital inflows to cryptocurrency products throughout 2026. Nasdaq disclosed IPO activity totaling $129.3 billion on its exchange during the year’s first half.
A Bitcoin recovery could serve as a trigger for increased exchange debuts and venture capital deployment across the blockchain sector. Regulatory transparency from agencies including the SEC remains a critical factor.
Primary downside threats include macroeconomic instability and regulatory ambiguity. Principal upside catalysts are enhanced ETF frameworks and improved market architecture.
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