TLDR
- Arthur Hayes said he would not buy Bitcoin now and would wait for Fed easing.
- Hayes said geopolitical stress could trigger sell-offs in stocks and crypto.
- Bitcoin’s 20 millionth coin was mined at block 939999 by Foundry USA.
- The next Bitcoin halving is set for April 11, 2028, cutting rewards to 1.5625 BTC.
Bitcoin may face fresh downside before any major advance, according to Arthur Hayes. He said current market conditions could pressure both crypto and stocks.
In an interview with CoinStories, Hayes said he would not buy Bitcoin now. He said he would wait for the Federal Reserve to ease policy and print more money before entering the market.
Hayes points to macro risk and market pressure
Hayes said geopolitical tensions could drive a broad sell-off across risk assets. That pressure, he said, could pull Bitcoin below the $60,000 level.
He linked that risk to wider weakness in financial markets. Stocks and crypto often react to the same macro fears, and traders may cut exposure fast.
Hayes did not change his longer-term view on Bitcoin. He still expects the asset to trade above $100,000 in the coming years, even after near-term weakness.
His comments place the focus on timing rather than direction. He said he would rather wait for easier monetary conditions than buy during current uncertainty.
Bitcoin reaches 20 million mined coins
The warning came as Bitcoin moved closer to its final supply cap. Miners produced the 20 millionth coin at block height 939,999.
Foundry USA mined that block and received 3.125 BTC. That reward reflects the April 2024 halving, which cut block subsidies in half.
The 20 million mark means 95.24% of all Bitcoin has already been issued. Only 1 million coins remain to be mined over the next century.
Bitcoin’s supply schedule remains one of its core features. The final full Bitcoin is expected to be mined in the 2090s, while the last satoshi should arrive around 2140.
This milestone came 17 years, two months, and one week after the first block. Bitcoin was launched in January 2009, and its issuance has followed a fixed path since then.
Lost coins and miner revenue remain key issues
Not all mined Bitcoin can still be used. Estimates from River Financial and Chainalysis suggest that 2.3 million to 3.7 million BTC are permanently lost.
Many coins were lost through forgotten passwords and missing private keys. Some early holders also died without sharing wallet access.
Recent estimates show about 1.8 million coins were lost in Bitcoin’s early years. Storage tools were weaker then, and the asset had little market value.
Another 230 BTC is locked forever due to the genesis block and early unspendable outputs. That reduces the practical supply available in the market.
The same fixed supply model also creates a long-term issue for miners. Their block rewards fall every four years, and daily issuance keeps shrinking.
Daily new supply is expected to fall below 30 BTC in the 2040s. It is then projected to drop below 2 BTC per day in the 2060s.
When subsidies near zero, transaction fees will become the main source of miner income. It is still unclear whether fee revenue alone will support network security at scale.
At the time of the milestone, Bitcoin traded near $69,282. It was down nearly 21% for the year, but it had gained about 3.44% over the prior week.
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