TLDR
- Hayes believes Trump’s tariffs will positively impact Bitcoin prices
- Bitcoin needs to hold $76,500 support until tax day (April 15)
- Hayes predicts Fed rate cuts and money printing will boost Bitcoin
- Global market imbalances may push investors toward Bitcoin and gold
- Hayes has accurately predicted recent Bitcoin price movements
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has expressed optimism about US President Donald Trump’s new tariff policies, suggesting they could fuel a Bitcoin rally despite causing economic disruption. According to Hayes, the tariffs announced on April 3 might create the perfect conditions for Bitcoin to thrive in the coming months.
The Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on all countries starting April 5, with higher rates for specific nations: China (34%), European Union (20%), and Japan (24%). These aggressive trade measures have already caused market turbulence.
Hayes explained his reasoning in an April 3 post on X, stating, “Global imbalances will be corrected, and the pain papered over with printed money, which is good for BTC.” His enthusiasm for tariffs comes despite market concerns, as he boldly stated, “Some of y’all are running scurred, but I LOVE TARIFFS.”
Market Reactions and Bitcoin Price Factors
The tariff announcement coincided with what trading resource The Kobeissi Letter called “the largest single-day point loss for the Nasdaq 100 in history.” The index dropped 1,060 points, coming close to triggering circuit breakers not seen since March 2020.
WOW.
Today marked the largest single-day point loss for the Nasdaq 100 in HISTORY.
The index lost a total of -1060 points and came just 1.5% away from triggering the first circuit breaker since March 2020.
Buckle up folks. https://t.co/zswsMk9mlQ pic.twitter.com/FeVLOO2Swp
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 3, 2025
Hayes outlined several factors that could boost Bitcoin’s price. He mentioned the weakening of the US Dollar Index as overseas investors sell US stocks and “bring money home.” This movement away from the dollar typically benefits alternative stores of value like Bitcoin and gold.
The cryptocurrency market has experienced volatility recently. Bitcoin traded at around $83,150 at the time of Hayes’ comments, having dipped to $76,623 during March market turmoil related to tariff announcements.
Chinese investors may also play a role in Bitcoin’s future price action. Hayes suggested that the 65% effective tariff placed on China might lead the country to allow its currency, the yuan (CNY), to weaken past 8.00 against the dollar. This devaluation could push Chinese investors toward Bitcoin as they seek to preserve their wealth.
Federal Reserve Response Predictions
A key part of Hayes’ outlook centers on Federal Reserve policy. He noted that “we need Fed easing,” pointing to a drop in the two-year Treasury yield following the tariff announcement. This market reaction suggests investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
We need Fed easing, the 2yr treasury yield dumped after Tariff annc because the market is telling us the Fed will be cutting soon and possibly restarting QE to counter -ve economic impact. pic.twitter.com/081kiGf9Jk
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 4, 2025
Hayes believes the Fed might need to restart quantitative easing (QE) to counter negative economic impacts from the tariffs. Such monetary easing typically increases liquidity in markets, making riskier assets like cryptocurrencies more attractive to investors.
“The problem for treasuries is that foreigners can’t buy bonds without dollar exports. The Fed and banking system must ensure a well-functioning treasury market, which means Brrrr,” Hayes explained, using the onomatopoeic term that became popular during pandemic-era money printing.
Hayes has earned credibility through accurate market calls. He correctly predicted a Bitcoin price correction when it was trading above $100,000 following Trump’s inauguration. The first quarter of this year saw a 12% decline in Bitcoin’s price, marking its worst first-quarter performance in seven years.
In his latest analysis, Hayes suggests Bitcoin needs to maintain support at $76,500 until Tax Day on April 15 to escape its current downward pressure. While many on-chain indicators point to bearish market conditions, Hayes remains convinced that Fed intervention could provide the necessary catalyst for a market revival.
Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies at Bitwise Invest, shares Hayes’ outlook. Park previously stated that in a “world of weaker dollar and weaker US rates…risk assets in the US will fly through the roof beyond your wildest imagination.”
Hayes’ perspective suggests that while tariffs may create short-term market pain, the resulting monetary policy responses could ultimately benefit Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as investors seek alternatives to traditional financial assets.
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