TLDR:
- Apple stock dropped ~2.8% following analyst Ming-Chi Kuo’s report
- iPhone 16 orders cut by 10 million units for Q4 2024-H1 2025
- Production estimates reduced to 80M, 45M, and 39M units for next three quarters
- Cuts mainly affect non-Pro iPhone models
- iPhone SE 4 production to start in December with 8.6M units planned
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) stock dropped 2.8% on Wednesday following a report from respected analyst Ming-Chi Kuo indicating a significant reduction in iPhone 16 production orders. The tech giant has reportedly cut orders by approximately 10 million units for the period spanning the fourth quarter of 2024 through the first half of 2025.
According to Kuo’s report, published on his blog, the production cuts primarily affect the non-Pro models of the iPhone 16 series. The adjustment has led to a revised production estimate of 84 million units for the second half of 2024, down from the previous target of 88 million units.
The updated production schedule shows a quarter-by-quarter decrease compared to earlier forecasts. For the fourth quarter of 2024, production is now expected to reach 80 million units, reduced from the initial estimate of 84 million. The first quarter of 2025 target has been lowered to 45 million units from 48 million, while second-quarter 2025 projections now stand at 39 million units, down from 41 million.
These figures represent a consistent decline when compared to the same periods in late 2023 and early 2024. The reduction suggests a more cautious approach to production planning by Apple, possibly reflecting changing market conditions.

Despite the production cuts, Apple continues to move forward with other product launches. Kuo reported that mass production of the iPhone SE 4, Apple’s new entry-level smartphone, is scheduled to begin in December 2024. The company plans to produce approximately 8.6 million units of this model between December 2024 and the first quarter of 2025.
The news comes just weeks after Apple’s ‘glowtime’ product event, where the company introduced its iPhone 16 lineup featuring integration with Apple Intelligence, the company’s artificial intelligence assistant. The AI features were expected to drive significant user upgrades.
However, Kuo noted in his analysis that there is “no evidence yet that Apple Intelligence could boost iPhone shipments in the near term.” This observation comes despite initial Wall Street optimism that AI-powered features might encourage users of older iPhone models to upgrade.
Apple has continued to develop its AI capabilities, releasing a new preview of Apple Intelligence features on Wednesday, including ChatGPT integration. The company announced that these features will be available to the public as part of the official iOS 18.1 release next week.
Prior to Kuo’s report, several Wall Street analysts had indicated that their supply-chain checks showed solid demand for iPhone 16 smartphones. This contrasting information highlights the complexity of predicting consumer demand in the smartphone market.
The production adjustments affect Apple’s planning for multiple quarters ahead, suggesting a strategic rather than reactive approach to market conditions. The focus on reducing non-Pro model production while maintaining Pro model targets indicates a nuanced response to market demand patterns.
The stock market’s reaction to the news was notable, with Apple shares declining to $230.07 during Wednesday’s trading session. This movement occurred despite Apple’s strong market position, reflected in its IBD Composite Rating of 94 out of 99.
Apple’s next earnings report is scheduled for October 31, which will provide more insight into the company’s performance and strategic decisions. The iPhone 16 series, which went on sale on September 20, will be a key focus of this upcoming financial disclosure.
The timing of these production adjustments, coming shortly after the iPhone 16 launch, suggests Apple is taking a proactive approach to inventory management and production planning for the upcoming quarters.
Looking at the immediate future, attention will likely focus on both the holiday quarter performance and the impact of the new AI features set to roll out next week with iOS 18.1.
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