TLDR:
- Apple stock has fallen 33% from its December peak of $259 per share to $172 in early April
- Tariff concerns under the Trump administration particularly threaten Apple with 80% of iPhones made in China
- Historical patterns show Apple stock has rebounded an average of 80% following 30%+ declines
- Apple faces additional challenges with underwhelming Apple Intelligence features and delayed Siri upgrades
- Citi analyst reduced price target from $275 to $245, though Wall Street maintains an overall “Moderate Buy” rating
Apple stock has tumbled 33% from its December peak of $259 to $172 per share in early April. This marks the fifth time in a decade the stock has fallen more than 30% from a record high.
President Trump recently outlined aggressive reciprocal tariffs that would take average import taxes to their highest level in a century. While some duties have been paused for 90 days, tariffs totaling 145% on Chinese imports remain in place.
These tariffs pose a particular threat to Apple, which manufactures approximately 80% of its iPhones in China. The situation remains fluid, with trade policy seemingly changing almost daily.
Historical Patterns Suggest a Rebound
History shows an interesting pattern regarding Apple stock declines. Since 2015, the stock has dropped more than 30% from record highs four previous times.
In each case, Apple recovered strongly. Following these drawdowns, the stock returned an average of 80% in the subsequent year.
After a 32% fall in 2015-2016 due to weak iPhone sales, Apple returned 73% in the following year. A 38% decline in 2018-2019 during Trump’s first-term trade war with China was followed by a 74% return.
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a 31% drop in early 2020, after which the stock surged 119%. Most recently, recession fears drove a 31% decline in 2022-2023, followed by a 54% recovery.
Trump Administration’s Changing Stance
The tariff situation has created confusion for investors. Initially, U.S. Customs and Border Protection appeared to exempt China-made smartphones and electronics from tariffs.
By Sunday, however, President Trump clarified that no exceptions would be made. Instead, electronics will face separate tariffs to be implemented in the coming months.
Apple stock did show some resilience, rising over 2% on Monday following a 9% decline in the previous two weeks. This came after temporary tariff exemptions were announced for tech products.
The exemption list reportedly includes nearly all of Apple’s key products, including smartphones, computers, tablets, and accessories. However, the relief may prove short-lived as the administration’s stance continues to evolve.
Beyond Tariffs: Other Challenges
Apple faces additional headwinds beyond trade concerns. The company’s Apple Intelligence features, introduced last year for newer iPhone models, have failed to generate the anticipated iPhone upgrade cycle.
A more sophisticated version of the Siri assistant, which was expected to be a major draw, has been delayed due to internal issues. Some features may not launch until 2026 or even 2027, according to Bloomberg.
The company is also dealing with sluggish iPhone sales in key markets including the United States, Europe, and China. These sales challenges come at a particularly bad time given the uncertain trade environment.
Wall Street currently expects Apple’s earnings to grow at 11% annually through fiscal 2026. This makes the current valuation of 30 times earnings look somewhat expensive, especially given trade policy uncertainties.
Analyst Perspectives
Five-star analyst Atif Malik from Citi recently reduced his price target on Apple stock from $275 to $245, though he maintained a Buy rating.
Malik noted that Apple products are not immune to challenging macroeconomic conditions. Citi has downgraded its projections for iPhone, Mac, and wearable units to align with forecasts of a 70-point global GDP contraction in 2025.
Among Wall Street analysts, Apple maintains a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating. This rating comes from 33 analysts, with 17 Buy, 13 Hold, and three Sell recommendations issued in the last three months.
The average price target sits at $240.89, suggesting a potential 19% upside from current levels around $205 per share. This indicates that despite current challenges, many analysts still see growth potential for the stock.
If Apple’s stock performance matches its historical pattern following 30% declines, the share price could increase 80% to $310 by April 2026. This would represent a 51% upside from the current price of $205.
For investors, the key question remains how Apple will navigate the uncertain trade environment while addressing product challenges and maintaining growth in its services business.
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