TLDR
- Susquehanna analyst raised AMD price target to $210 from $135 after government announced review of export license for MI308 AI chips to China
- AMD expected to recover $800 million in revenue during second half of 2025 from potential China sales restoration
- Company may avoid writing down $800 million in MI308 inventory previously planned for disposal
- Second-quarter earnings expected Tuesday show 27% revenue growth to $7.43 billion but declining profits due to export restrictions
- Multiple analysts raised price targets with AMD stock gaining over 40% in 2025, trading near $172
AMD stock received a major boost this week as analysts raised price targets following news that export restrictions to China may soon ease. The chipmaker could recover hundreds of millions in lost revenue if regulatory approval comes through.
Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland upgraded AMD’s price target to $210 from $135 on July 30. The analyst maintained a “Positive” rating on the shares after previewing second-quarter results.
The upgrade came after the government announced in July that it would review and likely renew AMD’s license application. This covers exporting MI308 AI chips to China, a crucial market for the semiconductor company.
The potential approval could reverse a previously anticipated $1.5 billion negative revenue impact from China restrictions. Susquehanna expects AMD to recover an estimated $800 million in revenue during the second half of 2025.
The inventory situation also looks brighter for AMD. Much of the $800 million in MI308 inventory that the company planned to write down may now be sold at near-zero cost.
Strong Performance Despite Headwinds
AMD is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings after Tuesday’s market close. Analysts expect revenue of $7.43 billion, representing 27% year-over-year growth driven by strong data center sales.
However, profits are expected to decline. Adjusted net income could fall to $796.6 million, or 48 cents per share, compared to $1.26 billion a year ago.
In May, AMD warned it would take an $800 million hit in the quarter related to tighter chip export restrictions to China. This warning created uncertainty around the company’s near-term prospects.
Despite the profit decline, analysts remain optimistic about AMD’s trajectory. The company has been gaining market share in EPYC data center CPUs, showing strength in its server business.
Intel’s acknowledgment that tariff-related pull-ins continued in the second quarter also suggests stronger PC sales. This could benefit AMD as it competes in the processor market.
Analyst Sentiment Turns Positive
Wall Street sentiment has shifted more bullish on AMD stock. Of the 10 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha, six have “buy” or equivalent ratings, with five “hold” ratings.
Price targets range from $111 to $210, reflecting varied opinions on the stock’s potential. The wide range shows both optimism and caution among analysts.
UBS raised its price target to $210 from $160 last week. The bank pointed to optimism about AMD’s ability to obtain necessary approvals for MI308 chip sales to China.
Bank of America also increased its price target to $200 from $175. The bank believes AMD could reach more than 30% of the CPU market share by 2026, up from less than 20% in 2023.
Market Performance Reflects Optimism
AMD shares have surged over 40% in 2025, closing Friday near $172. This performance outpaces many other semiconductor stocks during the same period.
The stock gains reflect investor confidence in AMD’s ability to navigate regulatory challenges. The potential resolution of China export issues has been a key driver of recent momentum.
AMD reportedly suggested last month that headwinds from export restrictions could soon ease. This communication led several analysts to raise their price targets for the stock.
The company’s strong position in AI and data center markets continues to attract investor interest. AMD competes directly with NVIDIA in the AI chip space while maintaining its CPU business.
AMD’s second-quarter results on Tuesday will provide more clarity on how export restrictions affected actual performance versus expectations.
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