TLDR
- SpaceX (SPCX) stock trades near $146 and is down nearly 15% over eight sessions ahead of its Q3 report Tuesday after the close.
- Analysts expect $12.89 billion in revenue, up about 65% from a year ago, and earnings of 14 cents a share.
- Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas rates SPCX Overweight with a $300 target and flags Starship Flight 15 as a November catalyst.
- Last quarter’s capital spending hit $18.4 billion, with $15.83 billion going to AI infrastructure.
- SpaceX makes up 25.44% of the Global X Space Tech ETF (ORBX).
SpaceX (SPCX) stock sits near $146 going into its third-quarter report after Tuesday’s close. The stock is down nearly 15% over the past eight sessions.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Investors want a turnaround, and this report is the next chance to get one. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas thinks the market should look further out.
Wall Street expects revenue of $12.89 billion, according to TipRanks. That would be up about 65% from a year ago.
Consensus earnings stand at 14 cents a share. The prior quarter showed a loss of nine cents.
Jonas is a bit higher on the numbers. He projects $13 billion in revenue, $6.9 billion in adjusted EBITDA and earnings of 19 cents a share.
He also expects 14.3 million consumer Starlink subscribers. Each would pay about $63.60 a month on average.
What the Last Quarter Showed
Connectivity revenue grew 66% to $4.29 billion in the second quarter. AI revenue rose about 247% to $2.56 billion.
Total revenue was $7.8 billion, yet SpaceX booked an operating loss of $143 million. Spending explains much of that gap.
Capital expenditure reached $18.4 billion, according to SEC filings. Of that, $15.83 billion went to AI infrastructure.
Starlink’s direct-to-cell service is another storyline. About 650 satellites support it, and regulators have approved 15,000 more.
Motley Fool analyst Rich Smith said on Oct. 18 that the revenue impact “remains to be seen.” Costs could stay high with Starship work and a roughly $8 billion spectrum deal.
What Analysts Are Saying
Jonas rates the stock Overweight with a $300 price target. That is more than double today’s price.
He wrote that “complacency is opportunity.” He points to Starship Flight 15 and a possible ship catch in the first half of November.
At $146, his math assigns $127 to space and connectivity and $19 to AI. That means investors are paying about twice 2028 sales for the computing unit.
He still flags worries about electricity supply, construction timelines and financing. He projects debt issuance of $60 billion in 2027, $80 billion in 2028 and $90 billion in 2029.
Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 28 say buy, five say hold and two say sell. The average 12-month target of $217.50 implies about 49% upside.
The Global X Space Tech ETF (ORBX) held 25.44% of its assets in SpaceX as of Oct. 16. Rocket Lab makes up 8.75% and AST SpaceMobile 7.66%.
A 10% SpaceX gain would add about 2.54 percentage points to ORBX, all else equal. That ignores fees and tracking effects.
SpaceX reports Tuesday after the close. Flight 15 and a possible ship catch are targeted for the first half of November.
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