TLDR
- CoreWeave (CRWV) stock closed up 6% at $69.69 Thursday, a day after a 15.5% plunge.
- Five-year credit default swaps neared 1,038 basis points, above the 1,000 level seen as distress.
- The 2031 bond yield hit 15.78%, and put option volume reached a record high Wednesday.
- CEO Mike Intrator says a backlog above $100 billion covers all debt.
- Deutsche Bank sees a buying chance, while Gartner warns 80% of neoclouds could shut down by 2030.
CoreWeave (CRWV) stock closed at $69.69 on Thursday, up 6%. That followed a 15.5% plunge on Wednesday.
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock, CRWV
It was a rough ride. The stock fell as much as 8.3% to its lowest point since May 2025 before buyers stepped in.
The bond market stayed tense. The yield on the 9.75% notes due 2031 reached 15.78%.
Elon Musk reacted to the yields on social media with a one-word “yikes.” The April-issued bonds traded near 79 cents on the dollar.
The five-year credit default swap spread jumped above 1,140 basis points at one point. It last sat near 1,038, up 16% in a week and 164% in a year.
S&P Global Market Intelligence says 1,000 basis points or more usually signals distress. Reuters reported that level implies roughly a 63% chance of default over five years.
Debt and the backlog
CoreWeave carries more than $51 billion in debt and obligations. In August, it raised its capital spending outlook by $4 billion to as much as $39 billion.
Analysts expect about $13 billion in revenue this year and a loss of $2.13 billion. S&P’s Gavan Nolan said demand is not the issue, but the cash flow has to show up.
CEO Mike Intrator told staff the market sometimes “misunderstands and acts irrationally.” He said the backlog more than covers the company’s debt.
Deutsche Bank puts that backlog above $100 billion. About two-thirds comes from investment-grade customers like Microsoft, Meta, IBM and Caterpillar.
Deutsche Bank kept its buy rating and called the drop a buying opportunity. Nvidia, which owns about 10% of CoreWeave, will buy unsold capacity through April 13, 2032.
Options and the wider sell-off
Traders leaned bearish. Put option volume hit a record high on Wednesday, according to Susquehanna.
Some bought contracts that pay off if the stock falls below $42.50, $50 or $60. Others used complex trades to cut the cost of those bets.
Evercore ISI’s trading desk said the market is saying “no mas” to AI debt without cash flow support. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang pushed back, saying CoreWeave’s cost of capital is falling.
Other AI names felt the pressure. Nebius closed up 1.29%, Iren ended down less than 1%, Micron rose 1.87% and AMD fell 1.5%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has lost 11.6% in six sessions, wiping out more than $1.6 trillion. Oracle’s five-year credit default swap spread rose to 282 basis points.
Gartner said about 80% of neoclouds could shut down by 2030. Co-founder Brannin McBee told the Financial Times the company is seeking an investment-grade rating.
In after-hours trading Thursday, CoreWeave stock was down 4% at $66.79.
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