TLDR
- SpaceX shares climbed nearly 16% across Friday and Monday sessions, ending at $171.09.
- Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas maintains a Buy recommendation with a $300 target price.
- The company’s forward P/E has dropped to approximately 106x 2027 estimates from 1,000x in June.
- Analysts forecast 2027 EPS of $1.70, expanding to $21.05 by 2031.
- The upcoming Starship test mission and third-quarter financial results represent key catalysts.
SpaceX shares reached $171.09 at Monday’s market close, marking the highest price point since mid-June. The stock advanced nearly 8% during Monday’s trading session alone, accumulating almost 16% gains when combined with Friday’s performance.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The rally followed a research note from Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who issued an optimistic assessment of the aerospace company. Jonas maintains a Buy rating alongside a $300 price objective for the shares.
The target represents potential upside of approximately 75% from Monday’s final price. In his research, Jonas argued that the stock continues to become “cheaper and cheaper,” despite its rising share price.
The reasoning centers on valuation compression. SpaceX currently trades at approximately 106 times projected 2027 earnings. While that multiple appears elevated at first glance, it represents a dramatic decline from earlier this year.
Following its June initial public offering, the stock commanded roughly 1,000 times estimated 2027 earnings. By July, that valuation multiple had contracted to approximately 200 times. The ratio has since been halved once more.
Rising Profit Forecasts Drive Valuation Shift
The compression stems from rapidly climbing earnings forecasts. Following the June IPO, Wall Street analysts projected minimal profitability for SpaceX.
Current consensus estimates call for 2027 earnings per share around $1.70. Projections extend that figure to $21.05 by 2031.
This translates to an earnings growth rate approaching 90%. When the price-to-earnings multiple is divided by that growth rate, SpaceX shows a PEG ratio near 1.2.
By contrast, the S&P 500 index trades at a PEG ratio of approximately two. Lower PEG ratios typically indicate more attractive valuations relative to anticipated growth.
Jonas isn’t the Street’s most optimistic voice on the stock. Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale maintains an $800 price target, implying a valuation around $11 trillion for SpaceX.
Catalysts Behind Recent Price Movement
Jonas identified several potential catalysts in his analysis. These include forthcoming AI product launches, Starship development milestones, and additional neocloud computing agreements.
He emphasized the upcoming Starship test launch as particularly significant. A successful recovery of the upper stage would constitute the most important positive development since the public offering, the analyst noted.
Earlier test missions concluded with the upper stage landing in the ocean rather than being captured. The company’s third-quarter financial report, anticipated in late October, represents another imminent catalyst.
SpaceX has maintained an active launch schedule recently. The firm executed multiple launches within a single 24-hour period, including a NASA crew transport mission to the International Space Station.
One launch deployed Google AI processing chips into orbit. SpaceX now generates artificial intelligence revenue following its acquisitions of Elon Musk’s xAI and subsequently Cursor.
The aerospace firm leases computing infrastructure to clients including Google and Anthropic. SpaceX completed its initial public offering on June 12 at $135 per share.
The stock peaked at a record close of $201.80 on June 16 before declining more than 30% ahead of the first post-IPO lockup expiration. Shares bottomed in early August and have since rebounded approximately 58%.
In Tuesday’s premarket session, SpaceX traded at $173.36, up 1.3%. Including premarket activity, shares have advanced 17% over three trading days.
Forbes’ real-time wealth tracker now values Musk’s net worth at $1.03 trillion following Monday’s market action, accounting for his holdings in both Tesla and SpaceX. The company declined to provide comment on the recent stock movement.
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