Key Takeaways
- Cathie Wood argues SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion valuation will appear undervalued retrospectively, based on Starship’s revenue capabilities
- ARK Invest calculates each Starship deployment could generate approximately $1 billion in yearly Starlink revenue
- Wood forecasts $10 trillion in yearly Starship-generated revenue by 2030 assuming 10,000 annual flights
- Elon Musk responded to Wood’s analysis, stating the 10,000-flight goal is “not impossible”
- SPCX debuted at $135 in June, peaked at $225.64, declined to approximately $104.83, currently trading between $142-$152
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood took to X this week with a bullish thesis on SpaceX stock, labeling its $1.75 trillion public market valuation a “deep value opportunity” driven by what she believes represents enormous untapped Starship launch revenue.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Wood’s thesis relies on calculations from ARK Invest analyst Sam Korus. His research suggests Starlink generates approximately $19 million annually for each terabit per second of network throughput. With a single Starship mission capable of deploying up to 60 next-generation V3 satellitesāadding approximately 61 terabits per secondāthe math points to roughly $1 billion in annual recurring revenue per launch.
Taking Musk’s publicly stated target of 10,000 yearly Starship missions, Wood extrapolated to $10 trillion in possible annual revenue by decade’s end. Elon Musk engaged directly with her analysis, responding simply: “It’s not impossible.”
SPCX debuted at $135 per share last June, opened public trading at $150, and surged to $225.64. Subsequently, shares fell beneath the IPO price to approximately $104.83 before rebounding. In Tuesday’s after-hours session, SPCX declined 0.58% to $142.66.
Critical Assumptions Underlying the Forecast
The $10 trillion revenue estimate contains important qualifications. Korus acknowledged that revenue per terabit per second will probably decrease as overall capacity grows. ARK’s own research confirms this trend: Starlink revenue per terabit per second has already fallen from $23 million in 2024 to $19 million in 2025.
Wood’s calculation additionally presumes all 10,000 yearly missions would carry Starlink equipment. Musk has independently promoted the identical flight volume for point-to-point Earth transport, indicating not every mission would necessarily expand Starlink infrastructure.
Achieving 10,000 annual flights would demand over 27 successful launches daily. Starship has executed only two missions since SpaceX’s public debut in June, both suborbital in nature.
Upcoming Milestones on the Horizon
SpaceX is planning Starship Flight 14 for September 22, subject to regulatory clearance. This mission would mark Starship’s inaugural orbital flight and its first “revenue-generating flight,” per CFO Bret Johnsen, carrying production V3 satellites.
Musk verified this week that V3 constellation deployment commences this month. According to Musk, V3 will ultimately provide over 100 times the bandwidth capacity of Starlink’s existing network of approximately 11,000 satellites.
For perspective, SpaceX posted $18.67 billion in revenue during 2025. Musk stated in June the company “might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030,” significantly beneath Wood’s $10 trillion forecast.
Analyst sentiment on SPCX currently reflects a Moderate Buy consensus, comprising 26 Buy ratings, 6 Hold ratings, and 2 Sell ratings. The consensus price target stands at $232.07, suggesting approximately 62% upside potential from present trading levels.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
