Key Takeaways
- Goldman Sachs reduced Tesla’s Q3 delivery projection to 435,000 units from a previous 490,000, pointing to softening demand across China, the United States, and European markets.
- The updated third-quarter projection falls short of the Wall Street consensus estimate of 456,000 deliveries.
- Tesla shares are currently priced at $356.58, representing a 20% decline year-to-date, with the company’s market capitalization standing at $1.41 trillion.
- CFO Vaibhav Taneja divested 2,606 shares on September 8 at $360.13 per share, reducing his holdings by 9.12%.
- Wall Street analysts maintain a “Hold” consensus rating on Tesla with an average target price of $414.68.
Tesla (TSLA) faces renewed headwinds following Goldman Sachs’ decision to lower its third-quarter delivery projections, compounding challenges for the electric vehicle manufacturer in what has proven to be a difficult year.
Mark Delaney, an analyst at Goldman, reduced his Q3 delivery projection to 435,000 vehicles from his earlier forecast of 490,000 units. He maintained his Neutral stance on the stock with a $360 price objective. Shares are presently trading at $356.58.
This updated projection falls below the Street’s consensus expectation of 456,000 deliveries, as compiled by Visible Alpha. Additionally, fifteen analysts have lowered their earnings projections for the forthcoming reporting period.
Goldman attributed the downward revision to deteriorating monthly and weekly sales figures from China, the United States, and Europe. However, markets receiving exports from Chinaāincluding Southeast Asia, South America, and Australiaāare demonstrating greater resilience and will provide some counterbalance to the weakness in other regions.
Goldman additionally lowered its Q4 projection to 475,000 deliveries from 515,000. This forecast nonetheless remains above the consensus projection of 462,000.
Tesla shares have declined 20% since the beginning of the year. During the past twelve months, the stock reached a low of $297.38 and peaked at $498.83.
Executive Stock Transaction
Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja divested 2,606 shares on September 8 at an average transaction price of $360.13, generating total proceeds of $938,498. The transaction was executed to satisfy tax liabilities related to vesting equity compensation. His remaining holdings stand at 25,972 shares.
Institutional stakeholders control 66.2% of Tesla’s outstanding shares. Waverly Advisors reduced its Tesla holdings by 12.1% during the second quarter, liquidating 7,973 shares while maintaining a position of 58,174 shares valued at approximately $24.5 million.
Conversely, Nykredit A/S established a fresh position valued at roughly $262 million, while Range Advisory increased its stake by 91.9%.
Recent Financial Results and Divergent Analyst Perspectives
Tesla’s latest quarterly financial report revealed revenue of $28.24 billion, representing a 25.5% year-over-year increase and surpassing the $26.42 billion analyst estimate. However, adjusted earnings per share of $0.33 significantly missed the consensus expectation of $0.50.
Analyst opinions remain divided. Stifel maintains a Buy recommendation with a $491 price objective. Evercore elevated Tesla to Outperform in June. Wells Fargo adopts a more conservative approach, maintaining an Underweight rating with a $130 target. GLJ Research carries a Sell recommendation.
The aggregate analyst consensus stands at Hold, comprising 22 Buy ratings, 18 Hold ratings, and five Sell ratings. The mean price target sits at $414.68.
From a regulatory perspective, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is examining whether Tesla appropriately self-certified its steering-wheel-free Cybercab. The regulatory body has requested a response by September 30.
Goldman continues to identify potential demand catalysts for Q4, including the Model Y Long Range production ramp in the United States and Europe, along with advancements in Full Self-Driving technology. Analysts project Tesla will generate $0.88 in earnings per share for the complete fiscal year.
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