TLDR
- Bernstein kept Robinhood at Outperform, with a $160 target implying strong upside from recent trading.
- Robinhood Chain has processed 150 million transactions and more than $12 billion in decentralized volume.
- Rothera processed 3.5 billion contracts since launch and generated $17 million in second-quarter revenue alone.
- Event-contract revenue reached $156 million, exceeding Robinhood’s $100 million crypto trading revenue in Q2 alone.
- Stock Tokens are available in 120 countries as Robinhood expands tokenization through its crypto wallet.
Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating and $160 price target on Robinhood Markets, citing tokenization, prediction markets, and onchain products as future crypto growth drivers.
Bernstein Keeps $160 Target on Robinhood
Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said Robinhood’s crypto business is moving beyond trading revenue. The firm pointed to Robinhood Chain, tokenized stocks, Bitstamp, and Robinhood Earn as key areas of expansion.
Robinhood shares closed at $89.84 on Wednesday, giving Bernstein’s target a 78% upside estimate. The stock later fell 3.6% to $86.60 on Thursday, raising the implied upside to about 85%.
The brokerage kept its Outperform rating despite weaker crypto trading volumes across the industry. Bernstein also reduced its 2026 crypto trading revenue estimate by 49% because of softer market activity.
The firm said Robinhood’s next phase depends more on infrastructure and new financial products. That includes tokenized stocks, event contracts, wallet services, deposits, and blockchain-based trading tools.
Tokenization and Robinhood Chain Gain Traction
Robinhood Chain has generated more than $12 billion in decentralized exchange volume since launch. The network has also processed more than 150 million transactions.
Robinhood Earn has attracted more than $200 million in deposits. The product gives users another way to engage with the platform beyond trading stocks or crypto assets.
Stock Tokens are now available in more than 120 countries through Robinhood Wallet. The product allows eligible users outside the United States to access tokenized exposure through blockchain rails.
Bernstein’s note said these products could expand Robinhood’s crypto business beyond spot trading. The company has also added Bitstamp as part of its wider push into global crypto infrastructure.
Prediction Markets Overtake Crypto Trading Revenue
Robinhood’s Rothera exchange went live in June and has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts so far. The platform handled 2.1 billion contracts in the second quarter alone.
Rothera generated $17 million in revenue during the quarter. Bernstein said the exchange is now the third-largest in the United States.
Event-contract revenue reached $156 million in the second quarter. That figure surpassed crypto trading revenue of $100 million as broader crypto volumes weakened.
Bernstein said, “Management expects a greater share of prediction market flow to migrate to Rothera over time, while continuing to distribute event contracts from third-party exchanges and retaining the longer-term optionality to offer Rothera as a B2B platform for other FCMs.”
The analysts also noted risks around regulation. Possible changes to payment-for-order-flow rules could affect Robinhood’s core brokerage model.
Crypto regulation also remains a concern for trading platforms. Bernstein said uncertainty over whether some tokens are securities continues to create risk for digital asset businesses.
Robinhood’s valuation case now depends on whether tokenization and prediction markets can offset weaker crypto trading cycles. Investors will also track user adoption, regulatory changes, and revenue growth from newer products.
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