Key Takeaways
- The company locked in AI compute agreements generating approximately $28 billion yearly with Anthropic, Alphabet, and Reflection AI
- Shares have declined 32% from the $225 peak, currently hovering around $153
- The aerospace firm generated $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue while recording a $4.94 billion net deficit
- CEO Elon Musk expressed confidence that the company will dramatically surpass analyst revenue forecasts
- Trading at more than 100x sales, Morningstar estimates intrinsic value near $780 billion — approximately 50% below current valuation
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) are currently changing hands near $153, representing a steep 32% retreat from the post-listing high of $225 and just 14% higher than the $135 initial offering price when trading commenced on June 12.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The aerospace manufacturer executed the most substantial public offering ever recorded, securing $85.7 billion in capital. While shares jumped initially on debut day, they’ve subsequently retreated amid widespread technology sector weakness.
SpaceX expanded its top line by 33% during 2025, reaching $18.7 billion. The Starlink division dominated with $11.4 billion in sales — representing approximately 61% of consolidated revenue — climbing 48% from the prior year. The satellite internet service also crossed 10 million paying customers by the end of March 2026.
However, despite impressive revenue expansion, the company recorded a $4.94 billion net deficit for 2025. Substantial investments in Starship engineering and its xAI division continue to weigh on profitability. The artificial intelligence business contributed $3.2 billion to revenues while remaining unprofitable.
The Strategic Pivot to Cloud Computing Services
The most significant recent development involves SpaceX’s strategic repositioning regarding its artificial intelligence infrastructure assets.
Instead of deploying GPU resources exclusively for proprietary AI development, the company is leasing compute capacity to external research organizations. Anthropic agreed to monthly payments of $1.25 billion for exclusive access to the complete Colossus 1 facility. Alphabet committed to $920 million monthly. Reflection AI is contributing $150 million each month for supplementary infrastructure.
These three contracts collectively represent approximately $28 billion in yearly recurring revenue.
Executives disclosed in regulatory documents that available capacity can fulfill all three commitments while maintaining support for internal AI development. The filing also acknowledged that its Grok language model will likely maintain a limited market position.
This represents a significant strategic signal. The company is essentially transitioning into a specialized cloud infrastructure provider — monetizing commoditized computing resources rather than directly challenging AI laboratories.
Valuation Analysis and Peer Comparisons
Similar cloud infrastructure businesses command substantially lower valuation multiples. CoreWeave maintains a contracted commitment backlog approaching $100 billion while trading near 4.2 times revenue. Oracle holds remaining performance obligations totaling $638 billion and trades around 5 times sales.
SpaceX, conversely, commands more than 100 times trailing revenue with its $2 trillion market capitalization.
Morningstar’s independent assessment places fair value around $780 billion — roughly half the present market valuation. The optimistic scenario demands near-perfect execution: sustained Starlink expansion, Starship development meeting timelines, and xAI achieving profitability.
This past Sunday, Elon Musk indicated via X that he would feel “disappointed” should SpaceX fail to dramatically exceed consensus revenue projections. Earlier in the month, he floated the possibility of achieving $1 trillion annual revenue by 2030 — representing more than triple Morgan Stanley’s $330 billion forecast. Goldman Sachs projects a more aggressive $470 billion by 2030, while New Street Research anticipates approximately $195 billion.
The company maintains $100.8 billion in cash reserves as of mid-June and recently disclosed plans for a senior unsecured debt issuance. Management will provide its inaugural quarterly update on August 17, marking the first earnings release since becoming publicly traded.
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