Key Highlights
- Robinhood shares have recovered approximately 33% from March lows but still trail 23% year-to-date
- Bernstein maintains Outperform rating with $130 target, suggesting roughly 50% potential gain
- Analyst Gautam Chhugani argues disappointing Q1 results are already factored into current valuation
- 2026 crypto revenue projections exceed consensus by 31%; prediction markets forecasts 30% above Street estimates
- Prediction market revenues anticipated to explode 286% annually to approximately $586 million in 2026
Robinhood’s recent performance has been challenging. Shares have plummeted 53% from their 52-week peak of $153.86 and are currently trailing 23% for the year. Declining trading activity, diminished cryptocurrency revenues, and a cautious macroeconomic backdrop have contributed to the downturn.
Yet Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani maintains his conviction.
He’s reaffirmed his Outperform stance and $130 price objective for HOOD in advance of the company’s Q1 2026 financial release, scheduled for April 28. With shares trading near $71.67, that projection represents approximately 50% appreciation potential.
Chhugani’s thesis centers on a straightforward premise: disappointing first-quarter performance is already reflected in share prices, and investors will shift attention toward future prospects.
Cryptocurrency Rebound Represents Primary Catalyst
Chhugani contends that Bitcoin has already established a floor and anticipates a substantial crypto market revival beginning in Q2.
He projects Robinhood’s cryptocurrency revenues climbing 23% annually to $1.1 billion in 2026. This segment would represent approximately 15% of aggregate revenue expansion. A broader digital asset price recovery during the latter half should energize retail participation and enhance capture rates.
Bitstamp, which Robinhood acquired for $200 million last June, receives particular emphasis. Chhugani characterizes it as a “key differentiator,” highlighting its rapid acceleration in institutional engagement, with the platform now generating approximately 60% of total crypto transaction volumes.
Bernstein’s 2026 cryptocurrency revenue projection exceeds Wall Street consensus by 31%. Looking toward 2027, their estimates surpass consensus by 18% on revenue and 25% on earnings per share.
Prediction Markets: The Premier Revenue Growth Engine
Chhugani identifies prediction markets as the most substantial incremental growth catalyst for Robinhood during 2026.
This segment’s revenue is projected to skyrocket from approximately $150 million in 2025 to roughly $586 million in 2026 — representing 286% annual expansion. It would comprise about 17% of transaction-derived revenues and deliver around 30% of overall revenue growth.
The analyst also highlights a “catalyst-rich” upcoming period: the United States will host the Football World Cup during summer 2026, while midterm elections later that year should invigorate political event wagering.
From a broader perspective, Robinhood currently captures just 4% of the total brokerage revenue addressable market. Its retail trading revenue share expanded from 11% in 2024 to 14% in 2025, propelled by diversification into cryptocurrency and prediction markets.
Bernstein’s 2026 revenue forecast exceeds consensus by 9%, with EPS projections 16% higher. For 2027, revenue estimates sit 18% above consensus while EPS forecasts lead by 25%.
Not all analysts share this optimism. Truist reduced its price objective to $100 from $120, flagging weakening transaction revenues. Mizuho decreased its target to $105 from $110, highlighting softer net interest income. Citizens lowered its objective to $155 from $180 after revising Q1 2026 EBITDA projections downward to $573.1 million, beneath consensus expectations.
Among 17 tracked analysts, 14 assign HOOD a Buy rating and 3 recommend Hold, yielding a Strong Buy consensus. The mean price target stands at $104.56, suggesting approximately 20% upside from present levels.
Q1 earnings are scheduled for April 28.
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