Death Threats Target Israeli Reporter as Polymarket Bettors Risk $17M on Iran Attack

TLDR

Table of Contents

Polymarket users sent death threats to Israeli military correspondent Emanuel Fabian in an attempt to manipulate his Iran missile strike coverage
A prediction market with over $17 million in wagers hinged on whether Iran attacked Israel on March 10
Fabian reported the threats to police and maintained his original reporting
Polymarket terminated the threatening accounts and provided information to law enforcement
Proposed legislation called the “Death Bets Act” seeks to prohibit prediction markets related to warfare and political violence

A military correspondent in Israel faced harassment and threats from participants on Polymarket following his coverage of an Iranian missile attack near Beit Shemesh on March 10, 2026.

Emanuel Fabian, who covers military affairs for The Times of Israel, documented that an Iranian missile struck an unpopulated area close to the city. His reporting became pivotal to resolving a $17 million wager on Polymarket concerning whether Iran had executed a strike on Israel that day.

No injuries are reported in Iran's latest ballistic missile attack on Israel, the fourth today.
One missile struck an open area just outside Beit Shemesh, first responders say and footage shows.
Sirens had sounded across the Jerusalem area, the West Bank, and parts of southern… pic.twitter.com/j6sovAsDwz
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 10, 2026

The prediction market’s terms specified that outcomes would be affirmative if Iran executed a missile launch, drone operation, or aerial bombardment on Israeli territory. However, the contract included language stating that intercepted attacks would not qualify for an affirmative resolution.

Participants who had placed negative bets initiated contact with Fabian, pressuring him to modify his article to indicate the missile had been intercepted instead of landing.

Fabian disclosed receiving communications through email, telephone, and various messaging services demanding he alter his coverage.

An individual who identified himself as “Haim” transmitted threatening communications in Hebrew, warning Fabian he would experience harm he “never imagined,” that he had created “enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable,” and threatening they would “finish” him.

Haim additionally revealed private information about Fabian’s relatives and residential location.

Fabian filed a complaint with authorities, prompting an official investigation.

Another journalist from a separate publication informed Fabian that someone had contacted them proposing a portion of potential winnings in return for convincing Fabian to revise his story.

Fabian rejected every request and emphasized that his coverage was grounded in official statements from Israeli emergency response teams and defense sources.

Polymarket Bans Accounts, Authorities Notified

Polymarket issued a public statement on X declaring the conduct “a violation of our Terms of Service” and announced it had terminated all related accounts. The platform indicated it would provide user data to appropriate authorities.

Polymarket condemns the harassment & threats directed at Emanuel Fabian — or anyone else for that matter.
This behavior violates our Terms of Service & has no place on our platform. We've banned the accounts for all involved & will pass their info to the relevant authorities.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) March 16, 2026

The Israeli Defense Forces subsequently verified that the missile striking near Beit Shemesh had not been intercepted, corroborating Fabian’s initial coverage.

US Lawmakers Move to Restrict War-Linked Prediction Markets

This incident has intensified ongoing discussions in Washington regarding prediction markets connected to military conflicts and international crises.

Senator Adam Schiff and Representative Mike Levin have put forward the “Death Bets Act,” legislation that would prohibit prediction market contracts associated with armed conflict, political assassinations, or casualties.

Separately, Senator Chris Murphy has advocated for restrictions on contracts related to military operations after blockchain analytics company Bubblemaps uncovered wallet addresses that generated approximately $1 million wagering on US military action against Iran just before such operations occurred.

Polymarket has also withdrawn a market allowing speculation on whether a nuclear weapon would be used this year following public backlash.

Notwithstanding the controversy, platform activity continues expanding. Kalshi reported approximately $10.4 billion in trading volume for February 2026. Polymarket documented roughly $7.9 billion during the identical period.

The combined platforms are tracking toward their seventh straight monthly record of approximately $20 billion in aggregate trading volume.