TLDR
- Tesla is expected to report Q3 2025 deliveries around 456,490 vehicles on Thursday, though some forecasts run as high as 481,000 units.
- The expiring $7,500 federal EV tax credit, which ended September 30, likely pulled forward demand and boosted Q3 sales.
- Analysts predict Q4 deliveries will drop without the tax credit, with consensus at 465,000 vehicles compared to 495,570 in Q4 2024.
- Tesla stock has jumped 52% over the past three months, driven more by AI and robotaxi developments than EV delivery numbers.
- Full Self-Driving version 14 is getting an early release this week, with CEO Elon Musk describing the update as making cars feel “almost sentient.”
Tesla reports its third-quarter 2025 vehicle deliveries on Thursday morning. The numbers will show whether the company can stop the decline in its car business growth.
Wall Street expects around 456,490 deliveries for the quarter. That would mark an 18.9% increase from Q2’s 384,122 vehicles. However, it still represents a 1.4% drop compared to the 462,890 vehicles delivered in Q3 2024.
Some analysts project higher numbers. Troy Teslike, an online forecaster with a strong track record, predicts 481,000 deliveries. Future Fund Active ETF co-founder Gary Black estimates 470,000 vehicles.
The wide range of estimates reflects uncertainty about how much the expiring tax credit boosted sales. Ford Motor reported an 85% jump in September EV sales, suggesting buyers rushed to beat the deadline.
Tesla delivered about 721,000 cars in the first half of 2025. That’s down 13% from the same period last year. The second quarter saw a 13.5% year-over-year decline, the largest in company history.
Tax Credit Expiration Creates Uncertainty
The $7,500 federal EV purchase tax credit expired on September 30. President Donald Trump’s tax and spending bill passed on July 4 eliminated the credit. Buyers who made firm orders with payment by September 30 can still claim the credit even with later delivery.
The credit’s end will likely hurt Q4 sales. CEO Elon Musk warned on the Q2 earnings call that Tesla faces several “rough” quarters ahead.
Current consensus estimates project 465,000 vehicles for Q4. That’s down from the 495,570 sold in the final quarter of 2024, which was a company record.
European and Chinese registration data ran below year-ago levels in Q3. Chinese sales did show improvement compared to Q2. The U.S. market became the key driver for the quarter.
Stock Performance Disconnected from Delivery Numbers
Tesla stock rose 2% to $468.51 in premarket trading Thursday. Shares hit a 2025 peak on Wednesday at $459.46. The stock is closing in on its all-time high of $488.54 from late December.
The stock has jumped 52% over the past three months. It’s up 14% for the year and 78% over the past 12 months.
Past delivery reports haven’t always moved the stock predictably. Shares dropped 6.1% on January 2 after Tesla reported record Q4 2024 deliveries of 495,570 vehicles. The stock had already risen more than 60% in the two months before that report.
Shares gained 5.3% on April 2 after Q1 deliveries of 336,681 missed estimates. Reports that Musk would leave his administration position surfaced the same day.
Tesla stock rose 5% on July 2 after Q2 deliveries came in near consensus at 384,122 vehicles.
Investors are focusing on AI opportunities rather than EV sales. Tesla launched an AI-trained robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June. The company plans to expand it nationwide as quickly as possible.
Tesla also plans to start selling AI-trained humanoid robots in large quantities in 2026. These developments have driven several analyst price target increases. RBC, Baird, and Wedbush all raised their targets recently.
The average analyst price target sits at about $347 per share. That’s up $33 since the end of August.
Musk announced on September 25 that Full Self-Driving version 14 will get an early release this week. He described the update as making vehicles feel “almost sentient” by version 14.2.
Tesla will also report Q3 energy storage deployment numbers. The company deployed 9.6 gigawatt hours in Q2, compared to 6.9 GWh in Q3 2024.
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