TLDR
- Two workers killed and five missing in mud rush at Grasberg mine on September 8, 2025
- FCX stock plunged 17% on Wednesday following the incident report
- Mining operations suspended until 2026, with production restart phased through 2027
- Grasberg produces 3% of global copper supply, supporting copper prices which rose 0.4%
- Analysts estimate $3.5 billion EBITDA loss, with some downgrading stock to Hold
Freeport-McMoRan reported a devastating accident at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia on September 8, 2025. The mud rush incident claimed two lives and left five workers missing.
Freeport has declared force majeure at Grasberg — and with good reason.
This will shake both copper and gold balances. Let me explain why.
Grasberg is a giant. One of the largest mines on earth, producing ~1.7bn pounds of copper (≈2% of global supply) and ~1.6Moz of gold pa… pic.twitter.com/MAYMnOpyfF
— Alexander Stahel 🌻 (@BurggrabenH) September 24, 2025
The company provided details on September 24, confirming the tragic loss of life. Mining operations remain suspended as investigations continue into the cause of the disaster.
FCX stock took a brutal hit on Wednesday, plummeting 17% in a single trading session. The market reaction reflects investor concerns about the mine’s production future.
Shares recovered slightly in Thursday premarket trading, rising 2.3% to $38.53. However, the stock remains down 15% for the month following the incident.
The Grasberg mine plays a crucial role in global copper supply. Citi analyst Alexander Hacking noted the facility produces about 3% of the world’s copper output.
Production Impact Stretches to 2027
That translates to roughly 770,000 metric tons out of 25 million metric tons globally. The disruption will support copper prices as supply tightens.
Benchmark copper prices responded immediately to the news. They rose 0.4% on Wednesday, climbing above $4.80 per pound.
Thursday saw copper prices gain another 1.2% to reach $4.87 per pound. The metal is now up about 8% over the past 12 months.
Freeport expects production disruptions to continue through 2026. A phased restart won’t begin until that year, with full production potentially delayed until 2027.
The company is assessing damage to the mine infrastructure. They plan to seek insurance recovery for losses related to the incident.
Financial Consequences Mount
Hacking estimates losing one-third of Grasberg’s 2026 production would eliminate $3.5 billion in EBITDA. Wall Street currently projects $12.5 billion in EBITDA for Freeport in 2026.
The analyst maintains a Hold rating with a $48 price target for FCX shares. His long-term impact assessment suggests only a 3% effect on market value.
However, the stock’s 17% drop shows investors taking a more cautious approach. Uncertainty about the timeline and production recovery weighs on sentiment.
Several analysts adjusted their ratings following the Wednesday update. Scotiabank and Bank of America both downgraded shares to Hold from Buy.
Overall analyst sentiment remains mixed but cautiously optimistic. About 57% of analysts covering FCX rate the stock a Buy, slightly above the S&P 500 average of 55%.
The average analyst price target sits at approximately $50 per share. This suggests potential upside from current levels despite recent challenges.
This isn’t the first tragedy at Grasberg. In May 2013, a tunnel collapse at an underground training center killed 28 people and injured 10 others.
The company continues investigating the September incident while working with authorities. Five workers remain missing as search and rescue operations persist.
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